{ "ticker": { "uuid": "182c7964-7df0-45d4-bca4-8a9cccd4b4e1", "symbol": "AERO", "name": "Montana Aerospace AG", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.347, "architecture_energy": 38.231, "architecture_maturity": 3.731, "architecture_confidence": 70.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.48, "rotation_up": 63.78, "upward_expansion": 39.54, "deceleration": 30.39, "rotation_down": 14.16, "downward_expansion": 23.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.389999, 24.241818, 23.315238, 23.799355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.799999, "trend_reference": 25.348333, "distance_from_trend": -0.021632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.475064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211229, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.16871, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.273792, "excess_performance": -0.316882, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055166, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211229, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088938, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080437, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273792, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.145332, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 430122, "relative_activity": 0.726583, "balance": 3.145332, "dry_up": 0.955636, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080552, "annualized_volatility": 0.537212, "from_high_reference": -0.29745, "from_low_reference": 0.253792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.348333, "fair_value_reference": 20.475064, "structural_low": 19.780001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055929, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.040451, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.430595, "worst_return": -0.216426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041841, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.006719, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179518, "worst_return": 0.035526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.271053, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.149922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.557229, "worst_return": 0.006974, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.204467, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104911, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128125, "active": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.781348, "energy": 24.158303, "activity_lines": [ 22.39, 22.079091, 22.425714, 23.931828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 790962, "typical_volume": 622080.25, "trend": 26.038333, "fair_value": 20.227756, "relative_strength": -16.602597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.588024, "energy": 17.719576, "activity_lines": [ 23.103333, 22.475454, 22.519286, 23.804409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.299999, "volume": 386739, "typical_volume": 613487.55, "trend": 25.798333, "fair_value": 20.30391, "relative_strength": -13.507276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.448899, "energy": 20.774164, "activity_lines": [ 23.933333, 23.033636, 22.735238, 23.756774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 27.299999, "volume": 655044, "typical_volume": 611737.35, "trend": 25.641667, "fair_value": 20.396346, "relative_strength": -5.437862, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 24.473904, "energy": 40.91054, "activity_lines": [ 25.27, 23.924545, 23.149047, 23.853656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 430122, "typical_volume": 591979.35, "trend": 25.348333, "fair_value": 20.475064, "relative_strength": -14.16871, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.346528, "energy": 38.231362, "activity_lines": [ 25.389999, 24.241818, 23.315238, 23.799355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }