{ "ticker": { "uuid": "182e0c81-1f3a-4a9d-b2c0-c80fafabf66c", "symbol": "002853", "name": "Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.095, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.251, "architecture_energy": 44.732, "architecture_maturity": 23.795, "architecture_confidence": 77.874, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.95, "rotation_up": 19.29, "upward_expansion": 6.3, "deceleration": 54.0, "rotation_down": 53.77, "downward_expansion": 77.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.414, 20.739636, 22.455429, 23.597527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.719999, "trend_reference": 24.824667, "distance_from_trend": -0.125064, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.422977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.50593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.919532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.215885, "excess_performance": -0.223284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125064, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067131, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.50593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.547987, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049195, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27552, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215885, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.82316, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9309337, "relative_activity": 0.737694, "balance": 0.82316, "dry_up": 1.059576, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126966, "annualized_volatility": 0.53407, "from_high_reference": -0.356254, "from_low_reference": 0.942755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.824667, "fair_value_reference": 14.422977, "structural_low": 17.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.014864, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": 0.007849, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.266839, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.056079, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01176, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.471338, "worst_return": -0.385514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025121, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.120522, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.432197, "worst_return": -0.468794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029595, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045326, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.544335, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097199, 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"direction": -63.706575, "energy": 71.918597, "activity_lines": [ 21.312667, 22.562364, 24.042095, 24.796796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.51, "volume": 21446547, "typical_volume": 13140260.2, "trend": 25.035333, "fair_value": 14.366234, "relative_strength": 9.530806, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.469143, "energy": 65.718163, "activity_lines": [ 21.284, 22.126909, 23.698667, 24.580688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.870001, "volume": 12911920, "typical_volume": 12919977.0, "trend": 24.914333, "fair_value": 14.379494, "relative_strength": -4.575478, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.398623, "energy": 65.675899, "activity_lines": [ 20.476, 21.342728, 23.147429, 24.182925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.92, "volume": 9817531, "typical_volume": 12749533.55, "trend": 24.799333, "fair_value": 14.394265, "relative_strength": -3.229029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.010056, "energy": 52.449394, "activity_lines": [ 19.944, 20.708909, 22.648476, 23.796194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.719999, "volume": 9309337, "typical_volume": 12619510.85, "trend": 24.824667, "fair_value": 14.422977, "relative_strength": 4.919532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.251288, "energy": 44.731837, "activity_lines": [ 20.414, 20.739636, 22.455429, 23.597527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }