{ "ticker": { "uuid": "182f6db7-ead0-4e2f-b86d-df5fd72536c8", "symbol": "SXLI", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Industrials Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.443, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.489, "architecture_energy": 55.238, "architecture_maturity": 73.237, "architecture_confidence": 62.434, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.13, "rotation_up": 52.63, "upward_expansion": 79.05, "deceleration": 71.25, "rotation_down": 25.77, "downward_expansion": 8.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.249334, 79.026727, 77.664286, 76.589828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 80.599998, "trend_reference": 75.353333, "distance_from_trend": 0.069628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.704423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349984, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.739138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080719, "excess_performance": -0.002165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069628, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053962, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023813, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017391, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080719, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.09771, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6710, "relative_activity": 0.446435, "balance": 1.09771, "dry_up": 1.327827, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022371, "annualized_volatility": 0.141255, "from_high_reference": -0.014188, "from_low_reference": 0.258982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.353333, "fair_value_reference": 59.704423, "structural_low": 68.519997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.000635, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001354, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.065581, "worst_return": -0.060561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021364, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.014966, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.110627, "worst_return": -0.047575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.09021, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.0102, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.148799, "worst_return": -0.047816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 87.19987, "activity_lines": [ 79.051334, 77.797273, 76.264476, 75.396882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 78.389999, "volume": 10152, "typical_volume": 15155.6, "trend": 74.288, "fair_value": 59.062917, "relative_strength": 0.330475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.873309, "energy": 84.794477, "activity_lines": [ 78.992, 78.077273, 76.573333, 75.685914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.5, "volume": 42014, "typical_volume": 15569.3, "trend": 74.671667, "fair_value": 59.275192, "relative_strength": 1.867704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.272511, "energy": 76.745194, "activity_lines": [ 79.158667, 78.506364, 76.977095, 76.022172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.870003, "volume": 20954, "typical_volume": 15469.85, "trend": 74.999667, "fair_value": 59.480641, "relative_strength": -0.320073, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.782409, "energy": 49.027778, "activity_lines": [ 78.708001, 78.549455, 77.206095, 76.228516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.599998, "volume": 6710, "typical_volume": 15030.2, "trend": 75.353333, "fair_value": 59.704423, "relative_strength": 1.739138, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.488876, "energy": 55.237735, "activity_lines": [ 79.249334, 79.026727, 77.664286, 76.589828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }