{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18334838-d31f-4c40-adfc-070d635e4cae", "symbol": "DCW", "name": "DCW Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.211, "architecture_energy": 12.458, "architecture_maturity": 35.133, "architecture_confidence": 54.558, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.27, "rotation_up": 16.13, "upward_expansion": 26.31, "deceleration": 71.53, "rotation_down": 55.14, "downward_expansion": 30.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.463999, 47.313454, 47.303904, 46.711362 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.349998, "trend_reference": 46.567629, "distance_from_trend": -0.004673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 65.440721, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.291725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.530099, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.049117, "excess_performance": -0.005408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.291725, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07576, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006537, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049117, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3958855, "relative_activity": 0.660865, "balance": 0.566414, "dry_up": 0.61504, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06753, "annualized_volatility": 0.363817, "from_high_reference": -0.428069, "from_low_reference": 0.248989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.567629, "fair_value_reference": 65.440721, "structural_low": 37.110001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.015422, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.002966, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.51394, "worst_return": -0.146371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018008, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021171, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.088711, "worst_return": -0.154607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.246094, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.192037, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.918174, "worst_return": -0.190268, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002836, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.26877, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": 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48.154727, 47.220809, 46.899221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.23, "volume": 3612915, "typical_volume": 6872271.7, "trend": 47.204646, "fair_value": 65.462274, "relative_strength": -13.594558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.886858, "energy": 3.315666, "activity_lines": [ 47.512, 47.856182, 47.263428, 46.807388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.189999, "volume": 3127514, "typical_volume": 6459114.25, "trend": 46.823755, "fair_value": 65.445107, "relative_strength": -15.01897, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.056161, "energy": 10.641795, "activity_lines": [ 46.894667, 47.562727, 47.289952, 46.741927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.349998, "volume": 3958855, "typical_volume": 5990416.75, "trend": 46.567629, "fair_value": 65.440721, "relative_strength": -14.530099, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.211118, "energy": 12.458409, "activity_lines": [ 46.463999, 47.313454, 47.303904, 46.711362 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }