{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1834b476-9e6e-4748-9fda-d4c611fa56ca", "symbol": "DPSCLTD", "name": "India Power Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.991, "architecture_energy": 45.723, "architecture_maturity": 38.552, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.0, "rotation_up": 23.16, "upward_expansion": 6.77, "deceleration": 53.41, "rotation_down": 52.66, "downward_expansion": 80.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.342, 7.397091, 7.910524, 8.169892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.39, "trend_reference": 8.501667, "distance_from_trend": -0.130759, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.468366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.489231, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.0924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187019, "excess_performance": -0.14331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130759, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.489231, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230924, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.410671, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 350988, "relative_activity": 0.621333, "balance": 0.410671, "dry_up": 0.694387, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090247, "annualized_volatility": 0.454141, "from_high_reference": -0.444778, "from_low_reference": 0.063309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.501667, "fair_value_reference": 14.468366, "structural_low": 6.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.005558, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.030091, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.261121, "worst_return": -0.231293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.084356, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059177, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.395349, "worst_return": -0.232065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007919, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.065715, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.260504, "worst_return": -0.217432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029312, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176544, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042254, "active": false 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"2026-07-10", "close": 7.45, "volume": 426946, "typical_volume": 644717.45, "trend": 8.847333, "fair_value": 14.633318, "relative_strength": -24.480626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.549588, "energy": 71.227923, "activity_lines": [ 7.480667, 7.780182, 8.314238, 8.526645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.41, "volume": 442563, "typical_volume": 632739.85, "trend": 8.758333, "fair_value": 14.604018, "relative_strength": -24.41215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.436381, "energy": 62.943822, "activity_lines": [ 7.454667, 7.630364, 8.208, 8.433914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.17, "volume": 420528, "typical_volume": 625618.6, "trend": 8.666667, "fair_value": 14.561437, "relative_strength": -24.328547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.002821, "energy": 57.960134, "activity_lines": [ 7.355333, 7.489273, 8.08819, 8.331441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.35, "volume": 354945, "typical_volume": 601716.45, "trend": 8.577333, "fair_value": 14.513345, "relative_strength": -23.593383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.335442, "energy": 49.65541, "activity_lines": [ 7.338, 7.430727, 7.994857, 8.246495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.39, "volume": 350988, "typical_volume": 564895.5, "trend": 8.501667, "fair_value": 14.468366, "relative_strength": -23.0924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.990988, "energy": 45.72262, "activity_lines": [ 7.342, 7.397091, 7.910524, 8.169892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }