{ "ticker": { "uuid": "183ceaed-94f8-4de6-bcd4-28eec634df53", "symbol": "002311", "name": "Guangdong Haid Group Co., Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.851, "architecture_energy": 18.487, "architecture_maturity": 26.986, "architecture_confidence": 56.824, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.46, "rotation_up": 42.66, "upward_expansion": 35.1, "deceleration": 43.63, "rotation_down": 19.02, "downward_expansion": 43.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.529333, 46.399378, 45.94251, 47.176129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.91, "trend_reference": 48.909643, "distance_from_trend": -0.06133, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.637537, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056079, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.227057, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108717, "excess_performance": -0.116116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06133, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056079, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015723, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180014, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.644194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55395602, "relative_activity": 1.319137, "balance": 1.644194, "dry_up": 1.328475, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072559, "annualized_volatility": 0.313361, "from_high_reference": -0.327429, "from_low_reference": 0.122494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.909643, "fair_value_reference": 48.637537, "structural_low": 40.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.027468, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.003215, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.062375, "worst_return": -0.146249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013223, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003937, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.102501, "worst_return": -0.249134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.166499, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029208, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.013861, "worst_return": -0.198691, 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"Developing", "return": 0.135243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.189923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087754, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.833448, "energy": 36.851939, "activity_lines": [ 44.243898, 44.182588, 45.783592, 47.585069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.93, "volume": 60775008, "typical_volume": 40437112.8, "trend": 49.560309, "fair_value": 48.610316, "relative_strength": -11.912436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.314507, "energy": 18.507438, "activity_lines": [ 45.585333, 44.819726, 45.776929, 47.468985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.259998, "volume": 57389004, "typical_volume": 41036019.6, "trend": 49.383643, "fair_value": 48.627348, "relative_strength": -11.041106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.158155, "energy": 19.285019, "activity_lines": [ 46.805999, 45.468981, 45.834456, 47.385094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.459999, "volume": 49591293, "typical_volume": 41378758.7, "trend": 49.225309, "fair_value": 48.642766, "relative_strength": -6.912765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.323606, "energy": 19.666075, "activity_lines": [ 47.955999, 46.302018, 46.040745, 47.39002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.91, "volume": 55395602, "typical_volume": 41993810.7, "trend": 48.909643, "fair_value": 48.637537, "relative_strength": -17.227057, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.850966, "energy": 18.487418, "activity_lines": [ 47.529333, 46.399378, 45.94251, 47.176129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }