{ "ticker": { "uuid": "183d4f14-bb74-4dca-92e1-9b0dc5ce2015", "symbol": "ILA", "name": "Island Pharmaceuticals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.634, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.039, "architecture_energy": 31.113, "architecture_maturity": 21.974, "architecture_confidence": 59.339, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.37, "rotation_up": 49.48, "upward_expansion": 49.45, "deceleration": 32.64, "rotation_down": 22.4, "downward_expansion": 12.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.419333, 0.406636, 0.393631, 0.390704 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.45, "trend_reference": 0.391417, "distance_from_trend": 0.14967, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.207068, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.173202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.307254, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071429, "excess_performance": 0.007723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.14967, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057773, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.173202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.251856, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.083073, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045653, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071429, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.948544, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1244739, "relative_activity": 0.980365, "balance": 1.948544, "dry_up": 1.138454, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137607, "annualized_volatility": 0.63278, "from_high_reference": -0.285714, "from_low_reference": 1.571429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.391417, "fair_value_reference": 0.207068, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.051965, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.482759, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.053203, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.263158, "worst_return": -0.473333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.541627, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.498169, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.793103, "worst_return": -0.496774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.842105, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.753709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.586207, "worst_return": -0.574194, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.482759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.355556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.977273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.085, "volume": 108613, "typical_volume": 98105.85, "trend": 0.101567, "fair_value": 0.210667, "relative_strength": -36.354742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.305519, "energy": 23.663304, "activity_lines": [ 0.37, 0.373909, 0.375262, 0.382129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.45, "volume": 5271778, "typical_volume": 1366979.05, "trend": 0.396417, "fair_value": 0.198882, "relative_strength": 19.192612, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.676166, "energy": 14.685127, "activity_lines": [ 0.396667, 0.387773, 0.382036, 0.385575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.415, "volume": 2988204, "typical_volume": 1469828.75, "trend": 0.39475, "fair_value": 0.200908, "relative_strength": 8.657276, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.191996, "energy": 18.663945, "activity_lines": [ 0.406333, 0.393818, 0.385095, 0.386774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 645539, "typical_volume": 1313918.05, "trend": 0.392917, "fair_value": 0.202831, "relative_strength": 3.721517, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.794346, "energy": 18.264297, "activity_lines": [ 0.408667, 0.396, 0.386512, 0.387113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.39, "volume": 903359, "typical_volume": 1250977.05, "trend": 0.391417, "fair_value": 0.204728, "relative_strength": -2.09655, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.271286, "energy": 19.838772, "activity_lines": [ 0.404667, 0.395455, 0.387071, 0.386925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.45, "volume": 1244739, "typical_volume": 1269669.0, "trend": 0.391417, "fair_value": 0.207068, "relative_strength": 8.307254, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.038741, "energy": 31.113014, "activity_lines": [ 0.419333, 0.406636, 0.393631, 0.390704 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }