{ "ticker": { "uuid": "184406ca-a15e-4207-9e6f-76cae4850b3e", "symbol": "RBW", "name": "Rainbow Rare Earths Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.1, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.594, "architecture_energy": 21.834, "architecture_maturity": 13.486, "architecture_confidence": 74.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.16, "rotation_up": 26.78, "upward_expansion": 9.54, "deceleration": 61.3, "rotation_down": 42.94, "downward_expansion": 46.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.216933, 0.217727, 0.229152, 0.230656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.22, "trend_reference": 0.225833, "distance_from_trend": -0.02583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.14959, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.470683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.258276, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.253561, "excess_performance": 0.202326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.470683, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.463686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437771, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.253561, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2478023, "relative_activity": 0.777935, "balance": 0.588888, "dry_up": 0.592942, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095979, "annualized_volatility": 0.501916, "from_high_reference": -0.266667, "from_low_reference": 0.571429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.225833, "fair_value_reference": 0.14959, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.045318, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.032096, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.16, "worst_return": -0.195876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075265, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.000716, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.213942, "worst_return": -0.072165, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.195876, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.119428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.335979, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.320619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.152354, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.641237, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010204, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.150515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.376812, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": 0.600484, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.151722, "energy": 40.536203, "activity_lines": [ 0.218567, 0.231145, 0.238964, 0.23197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.22, "volume": 2047945, "typical_volume": 5128064.0, "trend": 0.220233, "fair_value": 0.147477, "relative_strength": 4.113306, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.569326, "energy": 42.286761, "activity_lines": [ 0.2175, 0.227027, 0.23724, 0.232046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.2225, "volume": 1932659, "typical_volume": 5044642.9, "trend": 0.221817, "fair_value": 0.147941, "relative_strength": 3.713175, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.002064, "energy": 38.730471, "activity_lines": [ 0.218667, 0.224455, 0.235655, 0.232192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.215, "volume": 879941, "typical_volume": 4400997.45, "trend": 0.223317, "fair_value": 0.14847, "relative_strength": -1.539112, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.075643, "energy": 28.766053, "activity_lines": [ 0.217833, 0.221382, 0.233286, 0.231753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.211, "volume": 2264381, "typical_volume": 3362987.35, "trend": 0.224683, "fair_value": 0.148965, "relative_strength": -4.921003, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.702937, "energy": 26.834946, "activity_lines": [ 0.215833, 0.2184, 0.230645, 0.230958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.22, "volume": 2478023, "typical_volume": 3185387.0, "trend": 0.225833, "fair_value": 0.14959, "relative_strength": -1.258276, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.593896, "energy": 21.834062, "activity_lines": [ 0.216933, 0.217727, 0.229152, 0.230656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }