{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18478021-a5b0-409d-85c1-f756c0734530", "symbol": "SONO", "name": "Sonos Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 49.715, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.36, "architecture_energy": 15.003, "architecture_maturity": 31.788, "architecture_confidence": 59.346, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.16, "rotation_up": 48.01, "upward_expansion": 38.38, "deceleration": 34.96, "rotation_down": 22.13, "downward_expansion": 15.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.042, 14.742727, 14.764, 14.649462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.64, "trend_reference": 14.678333, "distance_from_trend": 0.065516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.223397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099597, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.561912, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.084309, "excess_performance": -0.271763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099597, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046398, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005243, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084309, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.870622, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8203506, "relative_activity": 0.964174, "balance": 0.870622, "dry_up": 1.332073, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099399, "annualized_volatility": 0.358966, "from_high_reference": -0.210898, "from_low_reference": 0.394561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.678333, "fair_value_reference": 14.223397, "structural_low": 12.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011159, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.030606, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.343629, "worst_return": -0.17821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084544, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.529676, "worst_return": -0.257581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.165517, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.232518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.572842, "worst_return": -0.463122, 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06599, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.247373, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.34125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165468, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108261, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": 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14.918667, "fair_value": 14.239295, "relative_strength": -10.740592, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.025441, "energy": 18.836567, "activity_lines": [ 14.415333, 14.617091, 14.588286, 14.613699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.69, "volume": 7871065, "typical_volume": 8076733.9, "trend": 14.805667, "fair_value": 14.224038, "relative_strength": -11.920536, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.754609, "energy": 12.889736, "activity_lines": [ 14.546667, 14.596364, 14.621381, 14.598946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.66, "volume": 15338298, "typical_volume": 8453060.05, "trend": 14.711333, "fair_value": 14.213782, "relative_strength": -12.755297, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.720674, "energy": 9.038423, "activity_lines": [ 14.667333, 14.572727, 14.649619, 14.589548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.64, "volume": 8203506, "typical_volume": 8508321.65, "trend": 14.678333, "fair_value": 14.223397, "relative_strength": -11.561912, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.360267, "energy": 15.002912, "activity_lines": [ 15.042, 14.742727, 14.764, 14.649462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }