{ "ticker": { "uuid": "184b11bc-81c2-4da7-8cc2-14df297e1a67", "symbol": "BYW6", "name": "BayWa Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.362, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.151, "architecture_energy": 17.929, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 54.513, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.68, "rotation_up": 41.37, "upward_expansion": 26.57, "deceleration": 41.23, "rotation_down": 14.7, "downward_expansion": 46.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.672, 2.604, 2.614452, 2.671677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.735, "trend_reference": 2.831333, "distance_from_trend": -0.034024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.519068, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.797693, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.064217, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150621, "excess_performance": -0.324868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.797693, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.480642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133597, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150621, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584643, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1637, "relative_activity": 3.294094, "balance": 0.584643, "dry_up": 0.823523, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056532, "annualized_volatility": 0.32976, "from_high_reference": -0.752712, "from_low_reference": 0.231982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.831333, "fair_value_reference": 13.519068, "structural_low": 2.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.029097, "positive_rate": 0.418605, "directional_follow_through": 0.581395, "median_excess_return": -0.032526, "regime_survival": 0.930233, "best_return": 0.487552, "worst_return": -0.497024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.060123, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.162325, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.255528, "worst_return": -0.439651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.199863, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.281661, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.259155, "worst_return": -0.498425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-09", "end": "2022-12-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043573, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01963, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-02-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.777477, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060859, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.980491, "energy": 59.598421, "activity_lines": [ 2.484333, 2.529182, 2.609167, 2.72086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 590.1, "trend": 2.8585, "fair_value": 14.161889, "relative_strength": -54.601858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.617667, "energy": 42.137029, "activity_lines": [ 2.525, 2.534091, 2.601286, 2.70457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.65, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 590.1, "trend": 2.8665, "fair_value": 13.936248, "relative_strength": -52.378407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.706895, "energy": 22.472085, "activity_lines": [ 2.581, 2.550364, 2.600595, 2.691118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.685, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 590.1, "trend": 2.854833, "fair_value": 13.710831, "relative_strength": -49.800462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.455635, "energy": 20.442295, "activity_lines": [ 2.632, 2.572818, 2.605071, 2.679409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.735, "volume": 1637, "typical_volume": 496.95, "trend": 2.831333, "fair_value": 13.519068, "relative_strength": -48.064217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.150502, "energy": 17.929197, "activity_lines": [ 2.672, 2.604, 2.614452, 2.671677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }