{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18537d6d-139f-4028-b4fe-11506c6d8df2", "symbol": "PPK", "name": "PPK Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.178, "architecture_energy": 53.639, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.74, "rotation_up": 62.5, "upward_expansion": 55.02, "deceleration": 27.82, "rotation_down": 20.78, "downward_expansion": 20.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.376667, 0.360727, 0.347524, 0.346688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.45, "trend_reference": 0.357167, "distance_from_trend": 0.259916, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.499178, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098517, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.769124, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.125, "excess_performance": 0.061294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.259916, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054281, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098517, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.362865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097691, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.295823, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.977893, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 435266, "relative_activity": 2.335842, "balance": 1.977893, "dry_up": 0.955013, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091026, "annualized_volatility": 0.648538, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 0.551724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.357167, "fair_value_reference": 0.499178, "structural_low": 0.29, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.168539, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.164652, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.027027, "worst_return": -0.414286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.341212, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.353133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.275281, "worst_return": -0.407143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.443579, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.455145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.41573, "worst_return": -0.471429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.276596, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.309859, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.284404, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1625, 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"relative_strength": -13.31837, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.857574, "energy": 11.102221, "activity_lines": [ 0.346, 0.339636, 0.335571, 0.34371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.335, "volume": 103018, "typical_volume": 178092.9, "trend": 0.360667, "fair_value": 0.511453, "relative_strength": -15.038332, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.534216, "energy": 12.421082, "activity_lines": [ 0.343333, 0.339636, 0.335714, 0.341989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.34, "volume": 18921, "typical_volume": 173259.85, "trend": 0.3565, "fair_value": 0.505107, "relative_strength": -14.821994, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.073122, "energy": 7.994807, "activity_lines": [ 0.342333, 0.340455, 0.336381, 0.340656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.45, "volume": 435266, "typical_volume": 186342.2, "trend": 0.357167, "fair_value": 0.499178, "relative_strength": 9.769124, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.178309, "energy": 53.639316, "activity_lines": [ 0.376667, 0.360727, 0.347524, 0.346688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }