{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1856e992-32cc-48ce-a214-606b567c1f3f", "symbol": "GTT", "name": "Gaztransport & Technigaz SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.43, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.746, "architecture_energy": 9.504, "architecture_maturity": 17.802, "architecture_confidence": 62.211, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.48, "rotation_up": 45.29, "upward_expansion": 33.68, "deceleration": 42.31, "rotation_down": 26.43, "downward_expansion": 24.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.366667, 192.506724, 194.009052, 194.432434 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 197.0, "trend_reference": 192.813603, "distance_from_trend": 0.021712, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 143.603075, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.371837, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.936061, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111111, "excess_performance": 0.0578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021712, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051018, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.371837, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100571, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029361, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816468, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 401967, "relative_activity": 1.114409, "balance": 0.816468, "dry_up": 1.148336, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045278, "annualized_volatility": 0.203657, "from_high_reference": -0.083721, "from_low_reference": 0.369383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 192.813603, "fair_value_reference": 143.603075, "structural_low": 175.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.035084, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.027126, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.164116, "worst_return": -0.078572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.16191, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.130691, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.296732, "worst_return": -0.022173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.224279, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.1188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.280503, "worst_return": 0.127118, "sufficient": false }, { 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187.320269, "fair_value": 140.433784, "relative_strength": 2.459467, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.844126, "energy": 16.110094, "activity_lines": [ 190.624654, 193.698814, 195.715911, 193.434671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 188.100006, "volume": 568483, "typical_volume": 412818.9, "trend": 188.246936, "fair_value": 141.095988, "relative_strength": 3.533062, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.723844, "energy": 23.182669, "activity_lines": [ 189.070552, 192.245331, 194.929206, 193.484976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 186.300003, "volume": 361380, "typical_volume": 403131.65, "trend": 189.223603, "fair_value": 141.721126, "relative_strength": 2.399308, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.590617, "energy": 39.118428, "activity_lines": [ 187.600001, 190.714828, 193.967263, 193.359368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 195.0, "volume": 396658, "typical_volume": 385072.35, "trend": 190.490269, "fair_value": 142.341796, "relative_strength": 6.407384, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.58938, "energy": 14.520349, "activity_lines": [ 189.820001, 190.985294, 193.863891, 193.732039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 196.199997, "volume": 496814, "typical_volume": 375583.9, "trend": 191.853603, "fair_value": 142.973026, "relative_strength": 5.194741, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.537632, "energy": 4.19703, "activity_lines": [ 192.386667, 191.641294, 193.8929, 194.100408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 197.0, "volume": 401967, "typical_volume": 360699.85, "trend": 192.813603, "fair_value": 143.603075, "relative_strength": 2.936061, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.746479, "energy": 9.503998, "activity_lines": [ 194.366667, 192.506724, 194.009052, 194.432434 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }