{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1858f10d-6b4b-454a-8b9e-c69259a76f1d", "symbol": "4166", "name": "Orient Pharma Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.553, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.8, "architecture_energy": 31.225, "architecture_maturity": 67.95, "architecture_confidence": 79.25, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.41, "rotation_up": 17.13, "upward_expansion": 6.29, "deceleration": 46.02, "rotation_down": 59.49, "downward_expansion": 74.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.710001, 25.211819, 25.237857, 25.333441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.950001, "trend_reference": 25.601667, "distance_from_trend": -0.064514, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.174679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.153066, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.099624, "excess_performance": -0.540996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064514, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003987, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070901, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.341531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059216, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099624, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.26905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 817108, "relative_activity": 0.519868, "balance": 1.26905, "dry_up": 0.643923, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087522, "annualized_volatility": 0.275228, "from_high_reference": -0.29351, "from_low_reference": 0.073991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.601667, "fair_value_reference": 27.174679, "structural_low": 22.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004371, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.025308, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.158924, "worst_return": -0.306916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.000151, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061862, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.160401, "worst_return": -0.260807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.057687, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.341289, "worst_return": -0.269014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.150779, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.138598, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.791667, "worst_return": -0.260563, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027064, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.157746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165094, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097983, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.122711, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 20.75, "volume": 360940, "typical_volume": 378642.25, "trend": 22.64, "fair_value": 18.639103, "relative_strength": -12.504073, "stage": 3, "regime": 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1755708.05, "trend": 25.776667, "fair_value": 27.149038, "relative_strength": -30.734843, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.544297, "energy": 13.278672, "activity_lines": [ 25.613333, 25.532727, 25.42619, 25.500968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.950001, "volume": 468000, "typical_volume": 1739231.65, "trend": 25.72, "fair_value": 27.163782, "relative_strength": -30.441999, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.870438, "energy": 14.793104, "activity_lines": [ 25.313334, 25.468182, 25.381667, 25.447634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.950001, "volume": 817108, "typical_volume": 1571759.4, "trend": 25.601667, "fair_value": 27.174679, "relative_strength": -34.153066, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.799839, "energy": 31.224675, "activity_lines": [ 24.710001, 25.211819, 25.237857, 25.333441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }