{ "ticker": { "uuid": "186213a5-e034-42e7-9599-4937ff8cb128", "symbol": "MVC", "name": "Metrovacesa S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.482, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.817, "architecture_energy": 12.681, "architecture_maturity": 24.36, "architecture_confidence": 72.59, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.13, "rotation_up": 25.02, "upward_expansion": 57.71, "deceleration": 90.45, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 14.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.992, 11.054909, 10.978269, 10.879445 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.78, "trend_reference": 10.636383, "distance_from_trend": 0.013502, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.780928, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385439, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.233064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140334, "excess_performance": 0.015904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013502, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063878, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385439, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127949, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12461, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140334, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.179623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 426304, "relative_activity": 0.732323, "balance": 0.179623, "dry_up": 0.879796, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047423, "annualized_volatility": 0.378974, "from_high_reference": -0.134191, "from_low_reference": 0.325218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.636383, "fair_value_reference": 7.780928, "structural_low": 9.407253, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030777, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.058981, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": -0.040876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.090419, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.095477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161932, "worst_return": -0.023753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.177335, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.083943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179175, "worst_return": 0.121018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021459, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087442, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -0.355958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.624253, "energy": 42.715646, "activity_lines": [ 11.165333, 11.064727, 10.967945, 10.828725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.08, "volume": 469639, "typical_volume": 590773.55, "trend": 10.577713, "fair_value": 7.74521, "relative_strength": -1.798904, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.983152, "energy": 27.881794, "activity_lines": [ 11.132, 11.090182, 10.98918, 10.866394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.78, "volume": 426304, "typical_volume": 582125.6, "trend": 10.636383, "fair_value": 7.780928, "relative_strength": -6.233064, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.816664, "energy": 12.68097, "activity_lines": [ 10.992, 11.054909, 10.978269, 10.879445 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }