{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18682bca-4e75-4aca-b45d-d1c1586fe11f", "symbol": "TRJ", "name": "Trajan Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.231, "architecture_energy": 71.971, "architecture_maturity": 97.665, "architecture_confidence": 93.585, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 20.35, "upward_expansion": 14.09, "deceleration": 45.68, "rotation_down": 65.56, "downward_expansion": 87.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.213667, 0.234364, 0.275524, 0.324194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.195, "trend_reference": 0.406, "distance_from_trend": -0.519704, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.889135, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.780686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -66.485093, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.711111, "excess_performance": -0.774817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.519704, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257317, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.780686, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138063, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.664851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192402, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.711111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.370402, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 416119, "relative_activity": 1.083176, "balance": 0.370402, "dry_up": 1.510176, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.259369, "annualized_volatility": 0.828321, "from_high_reference": -0.793651, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.406, "fair_value_reference": 0.889135, "structural_low": 0.195, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.06448, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.278912, "worst_return": -0.27907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.046154, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.078321, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.296875, "worst_return": -0.524194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.174603, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.205285, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.091398, "worst_return": -0.681818, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089109, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.021164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.700894, "energy": 62.779032, "activity_lines": [ 0.268333, 0.285182, 0.326548, 0.384269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.245, "volume": 140456, "typical_volume": 307891.1, "trend": 0.454833, "fair_value": 0.921218, "relative_strength": -58.414982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.089884, "energy": 62.016842, "activity_lines": [ 0.259333, 0.274909, 0.314714, 0.369817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.21, "volume": 1237844, "typical_volume": 354948.7, "trend": 0.439333, "fair_value": 0.910673, "relative_strength": -63.565471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.946028, "energy": 62.378674, "activity_lines": [ 0.244, 0.260364, 0.300952, 0.354022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.205, "volume": 526211, "typical_volume": 369096.5, "trend": 0.423, "fair_value": 0.899936, "relative_strength": -64.570176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.520119, "energy": 64.502773, "activity_lines": [ 0.230667, 0.247455, 0.288095, 0.338903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.195, "volume": 416119, "typical_volume": 384165.5, "trend": 0.406, "fair_value": 0.889135, "relative_strength": -66.485093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.23058, "energy": 71.970777, "activity_lines": [ 0.213667, 0.234364, 0.275524, 0.324194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }