{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "18728936-e8ff-4e0d-b8e1-b0d8181274fd",
    "symbol": "4413",
    "name": "Est Global Apparel Co.,Ltd",
    "exchange": "TWO",
    "country": "TW",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-14",
    "benchmark": "^TWII",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 75.407,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -7.183,
    "architecture_energy": 11.644,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.93,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.167,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.49,
        "rotation_up": 32.3,
        "upward_expansion": 21.02,
        "deceleration": 44.12,
        "rotation_down": 25.14,
        "downward_expansion": 62.02
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.016667,
        15.460708,
        15.964868,
        16.397183
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 19.200001,
    "trend_reference": 16.89207,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.136628,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 17.389376,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104122,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -22.216403,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.088584,
    "excess_performance": -0.352788,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.136628,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.045626,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.104122,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062397,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.222164,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.106691,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088584,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.55974,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 657827,
      "relative_activity": 7.610154,
      "balance": 1.55974,
      "dry_up": 2.372384,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.07215,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.425076,
      "from_high_reference": -0.067961,
      "from_low_reference": 0.411765
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 16.89207,
      "fair_value_reference": 17.389376,
      "structural_low": 13.6,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.011628,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.042348,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.009464,
        "worst_return": -0.099462,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.033592,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.187703,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.009464,
        "worst_return": -0.182464,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.298662,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.134264,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.630915,
        "worst_return": -0.033592,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.068364,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.690975,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.22523,
        "worst_return": -0.088501,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.334507,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.065218,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.076923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.017046,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.049133,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015306,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.054404,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.011364,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.046512,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.058333,
        "active": false
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": -0.014706,
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      {
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 101700.0,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.933542,
        "energy": 39.132188,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 18.225504,
        "volume": 123022,
        "typical_volume": 53157.65,
        "trend": 17.872752,
        "fair_value": 17.278688,
        "relative_strength": -33.4651,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 26.599416,
        "energy": 39.811772,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 35000,
        "typical_volume": 53542.65,
        "trend": 17.879284,
        "fair_value": 17.307366,
        "relative_strength": -32.885528,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.127257,
        "energy": 39.047795,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 54445.4,
        "trend": 17.864586,
        "fair_value": 17.330175,
        "relative_strength": -36.43362,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 6.759506,
        "energy": 7.863275,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 57164.95,
        "trend": 17.779665,
        "fair_value": 17.348881,
        "relative_strength": -41.587954,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 24.211225,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 54414.95,
        "trend": 17.699642,
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 50068.15,
        "trend": 17.617987,
        "fair_value": 17.371979,
        "relative_strength": -39.856149,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 48665.4,
        "trend": 17.529799,
        "fair_value": 17.382576,
        "relative_strength": -42.693659,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 48931.25,
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        "energy": 78.319927,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 53735.75,
        "trend": 17.301164,
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        "relative_strength": -46.653117,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -81.243323,
        "energy": 79.79511,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 14.599999,
        "volume": 37400,
        "typical_volume": 53804.35,
        "trend": 17.191745,
        "fair_value": 17.376419,
        "relative_strength": -44.57636,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.296503,
        "energy": 82.426385,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.35,
        "volume": 44264,
        "typical_volume": 51990.25,
        "trend": 17.095224,
        "fair_value": 17.371999,
        "relative_strength": -41.245894,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.360514,
        "energy": 83.827177,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.3,
        "volume": 41255,
        "typical_volume": 53003.0,
        "trend": 17.003569,
        "fair_value": 17.367257,
        "relative_strength": -41.899975,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.624001,
        "energy": 83.553699,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.498658,
          15.108499,
          16.132926,
          16.574095
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 13.9,
        "volume": 38100,
        "typical_volume": 51557.95,
        "trend": 16.905112,
        "fair_value": 17.361169,
        "relative_strength": -41.799167,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.0874,
        "energy": 84.905739,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.246465,
          14.79169,
          15.861007,
          16.373865
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.9,
        "volume": 83100,
        "typical_volume": 54205.45,
        "trend": 16.833457,
        "fair_value": 17.361794,
        "relative_strength": -38.204235,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.316399,
        "energy": 65.08635,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.42,
          14.719311,
          15.701657,
          16.244503
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "close": 19.200001,
        "volume": 657827,
        "typical_volume": 86440.7,
        "trend": 16.89207,
        "fair_value": 17.389376,
        "relative_strength": -22.216403,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.182735,
        "energy": 11.644166,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.016667,
          15.460708,
          15.964868,
          16.397183
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}