{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1872d760-d3d9-49da-ba02-5eeb3b65c6b1", "symbol": "600739", "name": "Liaoning Cheng Da Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.82, "architecture_energy": 22.608, "architecture_maturity": 95.921, "architecture_confidence": 68.921, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.71, "rotation_up": 31.49, "upward_expansion": 18.86, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 22.84, "downward_expansion": 55.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.71, 10.514, 10.689143, 10.94671 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.89, "trend_reference": 11.315667, "distance_from_trend": -0.037617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.038324, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.240468, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.129496, "excess_performance": -0.086293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042857, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013437, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129496, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.685747, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63366115, "relative_activity": 1.205571, "balance": 0.685747, "dry_up": 1.665356, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056085, "annualized_volatility": 0.214689, "from_high_reference": -0.198085, "from_low_reference": 0.102227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.315667, "fair_value_reference": 11.038324, "structural_low": 9.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.030377, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.006231, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.451128, "worst_return": -0.11401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.075893, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.051243, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.357821, "worst_return": -0.187078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055995, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052444, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.225453, "worst_return": -0.265393, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 10.5, "volume": 98468779, "typical_volume": 52834000.55, "trend": 11.347, "fair_value": 11.065998, "relative_strength": -7.276669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.876289, "energy": 33.802315, "activity_lines": [ 10.379333, 10.336182, 10.708333, 11.004925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.88, "volume": 78466215, "typical_volume": 52934579.05, "trend": 11.325333, "fair_value": 11.052035, "relative_strength": -4.042193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.527326, "energy": 24.239838, "activity_lines": [ 10.571333, 10.422364, 10.69519, 10.974796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.89, "volume": 63366115, "typical_volume": 52561076.7, "trend": 11.315667, "fair_value": 11.038324, "relative_strength": -6.240468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.819989, "energy": 22.608217, "activity_lines": [ 10.71, 10.514, 10.689143, 10.94671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }