{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1873fb9e-73a5-44a3-ba11-24a0254c619e", "symbol": "VHL", "name": "Vitasora Health Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.672, "architecture_energy": 50.047, "architecture_maturity": 91.106, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.01, "rotation_up": 24.31, "upward_expansion": 7.17, "deceleration": 48.14, "rotation_down": 53.9, "downward_expansion": 80.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011267, 0.011845, 0.012726, 0.014575 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.01, "trend_reference": 0.017083, "distance_from_trend": -0.414634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.033683, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.703112, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.745629, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.414634, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.703112, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066552, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.547456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031654, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5712505, "relative_activity": 1.280233, "balance": 0.402721, "dry_up": 1.930863, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.273077, "annualized_volatility": 1.130868, "from_high_reference": -0.74359, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.017083, "fair_value_reference": 0.033683, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.414634, "directional_follow_through": 0.560976, "median_excess_return": -0.047667, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.111349, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.282051, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.15625, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.191818, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": -0.019608, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.423077, "active": false }, { 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"fair_value": 0.034022, "relative_strength": -44.392661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.061024, "energy": 37.240581, "activity_lines": [ 0.0124, 0.0125, 0.013612, 0.015511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 15790181, "typical_volume": 4298713.95, "trend": 0.01755, "fair_value": 0.033837, "relative_strength": -49.393792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.619638, "energy": 41.926412, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.012236, 0.01319, 0.015062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01, "volume": 5712505, "typical_volume": 4462084.0, "trend": 0.017083, "fair_value": 0.033683, "relative_strength": -54.745629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.672263, "energy": 50.046929, "activity_lines": [ 0.011267, 0.011845, 0.012726, 0.014575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }