{ "ticker": { "uuid": "187fd41d-9de1-4727-b01f-1d67752955dd", "symbol": "WCOB", "name": "WisdomTree Enhanced Commodity UCITS ETF - USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.391, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.715, "architecture_energy": 29.043, "architecture_maturity": 36.954, "architecture_confidence": 59.011, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.25, "rotation_up": 56.38, "upward_expansion": 64.74, "deceleration": 67.17, "rotation_down": 10.7, "downward_expansion": 10.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 1597.416667, 1576.286364, 1592.247619, 1581.854839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1595.0, "trend_reference": 1542.675, "distance_from_trend": 0.033918, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1245.15282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280967, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.266492, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181044, "excess_performance": 0.129809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033918, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073153, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280967, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07662, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042665, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181044, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.492346, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88792, "relative_activity": 1.04273, "balance": 1.492346, "dry_up": 1.230934, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034837, "annualized_volatility": 0.205193, "from_high_reference": -0.084123, "from_low_reference": 0.412755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1542.675, "fair_value_reference": 1245.15282, "structural_low": 1324.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.004795, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00908, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.071881, "worst_return": -0.062817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.016541, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.04183, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.24063, "worst_return": -0.127886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012569, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046644, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.410045, "worst_return": -0.057039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"close": 1634.0, "volume": 114137, "typical_volume": 103990.6, "trend": 1521.483333, "fair_value": 1239.648013, "relative_strength": 9.021388, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.682747, "energy": 16.55711, "activity_lines": [ 1575.2, 1571.1, 1593.560714, 1573.165054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1594.25, "volume": 112248, "typical_volume": 100121.85, "trend": 1533.075, "fair_value": 1242.401218, "relative_strength": 4.815551, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.273617, "energy": 21.862131, "activity_lines": [ 1589.083333, 1572.918182, 1592.844048, 1577.859677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1595.0, "volume": 88792, "typical_volume": 85153.4, "trend": 1542.675, "fair_value": 1245.15282, "relative_strength": 4.266492, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.715248, "energy": 29.042841, "activity_lines": [ 1597.416667, 1576.286364, 1592.247619, 1581.854839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }