{ "ticker": { "uuid": "188136d1-2a93-4221-ba53-e274dd837f11", "symbol": "600004", "name": "Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.376, "architecture_energy": 36.38, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.657, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.51, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 19.01, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 36.09, "downward_expansion": 69.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.671765, 7.598499, 7.867161, 8.161097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.58, "trend_reference": 8.561754, "distance_from_trend": -0.114667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.51103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.58768, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.207113, "excess_performance": -0.163909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074705, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059431, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009586, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207113, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.00042, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58886035, "relative_activity": 1.351752, "balance": 1.00042, "dry_up": 1.499644, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047593, "annualized_volatility": 0.186279, "from_high_reference": -0.271854, "from_low_reference": 0.071045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.561754, "fair_value_reference": 9.51103, "structural_low": 7.077199, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.017575, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.009415, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.250572, "worst_return": -0.161336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013216, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.091491, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.144028, "worst_return": -0.16569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007463, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.062036, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.181458, "worst_return": -0.287857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -22.47842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.15294, "energy": 92.560018, "activity_lines": [ 7.356129, 7.672534, 8.11021, 8.423718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.617148, "volume": 65898999, "typical_volume": 43323139.65, "trend": 8.750088, "fair_value": 9.628781, "relative_strength": -12.635791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.898338, "energy": 84.397081, "activity_lines": [ 7.386146, 7.618461, 8.030246, 8.346533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.67, "volume": 81468602, "typical_volume": 42971066.1, "trend": 8.679754, "fair_value": 9.584228, "relative_strength": -12.728189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.564896, "energy": 64.821701, "activity_lines": [ 7.476637, 7.591686, 7.963805, 8.27685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.93, "volume": 55060795, "typical_volume": 43003428.7, "trend": 8.624421, "fair_value": 9.548469, "relative_strength": -9.743682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.71722, "energy": 47.543974, "activity_lines": [ 7.656462, 7.624183, 7.929126, 8.228479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.58, "volume": 58886035, "typical_volume": 43562747.7, "trend": 8.561754, "fair_value": 9.51103, "relative_strength": -15.58768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.376431, "energy": 36.379919, "activity_lines": [ 7.671765, 7.598499, 7.867161, 8.161097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }