{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18846ce7-9623-44cf-ac5a-4ed2c3a6977c", "symbol": "PINE", "name": "Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.674, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.673, "architecture_energy": 30.394, "architecture_maturity": 44.486, "architecture_confidence": 56.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.67, "rotation_up": 44.22, "upward_expansion": 68.68, "deceleration": 64.53, "rotation_down": 21.45, "downward_expansion": 9.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.410667, 20.442288, 19.989045, 19.651296 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.98, "trend_reference": 19.196442, "distance_from_trend": 0.040818, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.255313, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309708, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.243232, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04944, "excess_performance": -0.076185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040818, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079435, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011926, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032432, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046908, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04944, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731267, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 594629, "relative_activity": 0.762485, "balance": 0.731267, "dry_up": 1.019402, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058734, "annualized_volatility": 0.248668, "from_high_reference": -0.091405, "from_low_reference": 0.599845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.196442, "fair_value_reference": 15.255313, "structural_low": 17.543516, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003584, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002644, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.136958, "worst_return": -0.104008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.034176, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032109, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.156399, "worst_return": -0.101817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049559, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.079593, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148257, "worst_return": -0.132514, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.010491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063921, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018259, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.18, "volume": 1076723, "typical_volume": 795081.9, "trend": 19.080084, "fair_value": 15.218166, "relative_strength": 8.341909, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.192932, "energy": 42.560364, "activity_lines": [ 20.658, 20.482788, 19.941324, 19.593237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.98, "volume": 594629, "typical_volume": 779856.95, "trend": 19.196442, "fair_value": 15.255313, "relative_strength": 3.243232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.672565, "energy": 30.393978, "activity_lines": [ 20.410667, 20.442288, 19.989045, 19.651296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }