{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18851836-3236-4af3-9225-d34e12ff67f3", "symbol": "TPL", "name": "Thai Parcels Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.647, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.833, "architecture_energy": 13.182, "architecture_maturity": 36.934, "architecture_confidence": 77.023, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.2, "rotation_up": 22.08, "upward_expansion": 52.41, "deceleration": 88.88, "rotation_down": 34.28, "downward_expansion": 20.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.514667, 0.524909, 0.522619, 0.512817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.5, "trend_reference": 0.502667, "distance_from_trend": -0.005305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.934231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.4648, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.337846, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020408, "excess_performance": -0.171917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00462, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.4648, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062386, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053341, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.378274, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4380800, "relative_activity": 1.669305, "balance": 2.378274, "dry_up": 0.852172, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123077, "annualized_volatility": 0.469739, "from_high_reference": -0.367089, "from_low_reference": 0.470588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.502667, "fair_value_reference": 0.934231, "structural_low": 0.34, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086512, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.090909, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": 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1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.356003, "energy": 15.520837, "activity_lines": [ 0.528667, 0.536909, 0.522143, 0.511849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.52, "volume": 771600, "typical_volume": 2446005.0, "trend": 0.502667, "fair_value": 0.943526, "relative_strength": -17.104349, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.037014, "energy": 14.130135, "activity_lines": [ 0.524667, 0.533091, 0.523476, 0.512989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5, "volume": 4380800, "typical_volume": 2624325.0, "trend": 0.502667, "fair_value": 0.934231, "relative_strength": -19.337846, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.832907, "energy": 13.181652, "activity_lines": [ 0.514667, 0.524909, 0.522619, 0.512817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }