{ "ticker": { "uuid": "188576df-dc1c-49e5-b984-55c0c7c05a0e", "symbol": "ACGLN", "name": "Arch Capital Group Ltd.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.797, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.072, "architecture_energy": 20.618, "architecture_maturity": 66.833, "architecture_confidence": 68.656, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.7, "rotation_up": 38.71, "upward_expansion": 22.06, "deceleration": 41.1, "rotation_down": 21.6, "downward_expansion": 53.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.327333, 16.238615, 16.295078, 16.392176 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.27, "trend_reference": 16.55746, "distance_from_trend": -0.017361, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.65736, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023255, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.489908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035891, "excess_performance": -0.223344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017361, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023255, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00467, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414141, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172348, "relative_activity": 0.780561, "balance": 0.414141, "dry_up": 1.126967, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021527, "annualized_volatility": 0.097262, "from_high_reference": -0.064242, "from_low_reference": 0.039617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.55746, "fair_value_reference": 16.65736, "structural_low": 15.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.024028, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007897, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.08957, "worst_return": -0.091055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005336, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.128497, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067041, "worst_return": -0.076208, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.037887, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088789, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131812, "worst_return": -0.056037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.73799, "energy": 55.13334, "activity_lines": [ 16.035863, 16.10033, 16.309662, 16.442777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.45, "volume": 278936, "typical_volume": 210656.85, "trend": 16.561574, "fair_value": 16.646738, "relative_strength": -11.119943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.353074, "energy": 30.749572, "activity_lines": [ 16.172, 16.143765, 16.310793, 16.435931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.3, "volume": 281012, "typical_volume": 220454.65, "trend": 16.567031, "fair_value": 16.648087, "relative_strength": -10.226886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.381096, "energy": 19.856835, "activity_lines": [ 16.233333, 16.167814, 16.300309, 16.419056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.45, "volume": 263042, "typical_volume": 220731.8, "trend": 16.569595, "fair_value": 16.653274, "relative_strength": -9.531255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.603042, "energy": 18.564362, "activity_lines": [ 16.327333, 16.220816, 16.305794, 16.411505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.27, "volume": 172348, "typical_volume": 220800.1, "trend": 16.55746, "fair_value": 16.65736, "relative_strength": -14.489908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.071699, "energy": 20.617567, "activity_lines": [ 16.327333, 16.238615, 16.295078, 16.392176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }