{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1889cbcc-7360-48ce-b40c-164c5010c2f5", "symbol": "UTLH", "name": "UIL Finance Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.989, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.327, "architecture_energy": 87.936, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.355, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 62.54, "upward_expansion": 97.51, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 26.65, "downward_expansion": 21.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.0, 149.7, 148.904762, 148.095699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 150.0, "trend_reference": 146.933333, "distance_from_trend": 0.020871, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 129.727564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.249059, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045296, "excess_performance": -0.005939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020871, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.156269, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010882, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82848, "relative_activity": 5.075133, "balance": null, "dry_up": 1.907371, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003287, "annualized_volatility": 0.034358, "from_high_reference": -0.003322, "from_low_reference": 0.094891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 146.933333, "fair_value_reference": 129.727564, "structural_low": 143.300003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.004149, "positive_rate": 0.675676, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": -0.002602, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.041199, "worst_return": -0.010791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01292, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.004647, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.090535, "worst_return": -0.011321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050542, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.003613, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.078189, "worst_return": -0.017544, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-08-12", "end": "2022-12-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-04-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-14", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.967723, "energy": 92.38012, "activity_lines": [ 149.7, 149.1, 148.219048, 147.419355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 150.0, "volume": 29022, "typical_volume": 18467.7, "trend": 146.5, "fair_value": 129.246795, "relative_strength": -3.166195, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.59609, "energy": 89.995031, "activity_lines": [ 149.9, 149.336364, 148.469048, 147.65914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.0, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 14171.9, "trend": 146.733333, "fair_value": 129.487179, "relative_strength": -4.146479, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.664492, "energy": 89.874743, "activity_lines": [ 149.966667, 149.536364, 148.697619, 147.884946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.0, "volume": 82848, "typical_volume": 16324.3, "trend": 146.933333, "fair_value": 129.727564, "relative_strength": -4.249059, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.326854, "energy": 87.936283, "activity_lines": [ 150.0, 149.7, 148.904762, 148.095699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }