{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1891ef71-9e8e-4cb9-81ef-337c97f30596",
    "symbol": "UC44",
    "name": "UBS MSCI World Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 66.447,
    "architecture_energy": 45.146,
    "architecture_maturity": 63.66,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.145,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.35,
        "rotation_up": 39.14,
        "upward_expansion": 67.08,
        "deceleration": 88.32,
        "rotation_down": 27.78,
        "downward_expansion": 19.41
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15282.8,
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        15096.092857,
        14782.379265
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 15654.0,
    "trend_reference": 14450.887728,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.083255,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12876.557354,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215698,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.506627,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.130372,
    "excess_performance": 0.079137,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083255,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033065,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.215698,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050919,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015066,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011411,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.130372,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.991158,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11000,
      "relative_activity": 1.217683,
      "balance": 1.991158,
      "dry_up": 0.8151,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.020938,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.132023,
      "from_high_reference": -0.162587,
      "from_low_reference": 0.209644
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14450.887728,
      "fair_value_reference": 12876.557354,
      "structural_low": 12941.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.014195,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004179,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.117575,
        "worst_return": -0.044196,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.034206,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010789,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.0951,
        "worst_return": -0.145881,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.04431,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002833,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.150553,
        "worst_return": -0.028134,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.065483,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.053829,
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        "best_return": 0.191492,
        "worst_return": -0.074264,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.041387,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.056505,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.076997,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.110382,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023292,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.002222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.035635,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016287,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 8886.3,
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        "fair_value": 12815.632806,
        "relative_strength": -0.866934,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15043.0,
        "volume": 4022,
        "typical_volume": 8815.25,
        "trend": 14404.57194,
        "fair_value": 12843.450377,
        "relative_strength": -2.161068,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.506422,
        "energy": 36.044249,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15654.0,
        "volume": 11000,
        "typical_volume": 9033.55,
        "trend": 14450.887728,
        "fair_value": 12876.557354,
        "relative_strength": 1.506627,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.44689,
        "energy": 45.145838,
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    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}