{ "ticker": { "uuid": "189b07ff-ac6f-4ab9-840a-5740a4081cb2", "symbol": "BFRG", "name": "Bullfrog AI Holdings, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.087, "architecture_energy": 44.284, "architecture_maturity": 43.715, "architecture_confidence": 61.022, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.74, "rotation_up": 20.47, "upward_expansion": 17.35, "deceleration": 44.53, "rotation_down": 57.26, "downward_expansion": 56.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.59392, 0.626085, 0.663605, 0.672827 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.59, "trend_reference": 0.67155, "distance_from_trend": -0.121435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.04456, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.711429, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.491261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.033456, "excess_performance": -0.153998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148554, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.711429, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00504, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.424913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093314, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033456, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.720897, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 773300, "relative_activity": 0.022076, "balance": 0.720897, "dry_up": 0.021221, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205815, "annualized_volatility": 1.500098, "from_high_reference": -0.710784, "from_low_reference": 0.388235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.67155, "fair_value_reference": 2.04456, "structural_low": 0.425, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.069388, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.094705, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.116505, "worst_return": -0.40531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.230469, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.285674, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.446701, "worst_return": -0.491268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.366667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.507059, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.113281, "worst_return": -0.429718, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.503906, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.702159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.503906, "worst_return": -0.503906, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.230469, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.277972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.135294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.295915, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.402422, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.261917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.406618, 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35020351.35, "trend": 0.689563, "fair_value": 2.085746, "relative_strength": -41.963781, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.114493, "energy": 29.331466, "activity_lines": [ 0.64242, 0.659718, 0.68964, 0.687233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.555, "volume": 915867, "typical_volume": 35024609.6, "trend": 0.678723, "fair_value": 2.064496, "relative_strength": -44.208115, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.044931, "energy": 51.657937, "activity_lines": [ 0.609007, 0.63882, 0.674859, 0.678551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.59, "volume": 773300, "typical_volume": 35029045.65, "trend": 0.67155, "fair_value": 2.04456, "relative_strength": -42.491261, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.086602, "energy": 44.284438, "activity_lines": [ 0.59392, 0.626085, 0.663605, 0.672827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }