{ "ticker": { "uuid": "189f56ca-a71f-4a33-827c-5f7d1430428c", "symbol": "PEG", "name": "Public Service Enterprise Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.078, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.007, "architecture_energy": 50.729, "architecture_maturity": 18.373, "architecture_confidence": 80.156, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.15, "rotation_up": 12.37, "upward_expansion": 10.13, "deceleration": 39.64, "rotation_down": 64.75, "downward_expansion": 78.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.485333, 78.895966, 79.095233, 79.561371 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 75.66, "trend_reference": 80.035365, "distance_from_trend": -0.054668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.721927, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.832752, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.046262, "excess_performance": -0.171887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054668, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000802, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026289, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038656, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003969, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046262, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18614513, "relative_activity": 1.337931, "balance": 0.705835, "dry_up": 1.105737, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044303, "annualized_volatility": 0.19343, "from_high_reference": -0.12223, "from_low_reference": 0.019677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.035365, "fair_value_reference": 73.721927, "structural_low": 74.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.002673, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.019548, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.123314, "worst_return": -0.18912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.038782, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.042865, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.087503, "worst_return": -0.099259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058748, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.077371, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.340325, "worst_return": -0.101272, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061017, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041477, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103347, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025944, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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-0.045543, "energy": 9.053975, "activity_lines": [ 80.487333, 80.179412, 79.787119, 80.097097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.81, "volume": 11863368, "typical_volume": 13698698.4, "trend": 80.192585, "fair_value": 73.451066, "relative_strength": -8.219284, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.00201, "energy": 3.193909, "activity_lines": [ 80.138667, 80.228411, 79.770627, 80.073996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.68, "volume": 15770252, "typical_volume": 13831024.8, "trend": 80.093105, "fair_value": 73.59055, "relative_strength": -12.237994, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.392277, "energy": 27.811642, "activity_lines": [ 78.752, 79.635299, 79.466401, 79.847378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.66, "volume": 18614513, "typical_volume": 13912906.15, "trend": 80.035365, "fair_value": 73.721927, "relative_strength": -15.832752, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.00682, "energy": 50.728761, "activity_lines": [ 77.485333, 78.895966, 79.095233, 79.561371 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }