{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "18ab3e97-a012-412b-9606-1fcbc54af934",
    "symbol": "TULV",
    "name": "TD Q U.S. Low Volatility ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 49.051,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.329,
    "architecture_energy": 44.76,
    "architecture_maturity": 14.307,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.683,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.27,
        "rotation_up": 60.49,
        "upward_expansion": 79.13,
        "deceleration": 56.48,
        "rotation_down": 15.85,
        "downward_expansion": 5.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        23.354884
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 23.91,
    "trend_reference": 23.239791,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.028839,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 20.903106,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143849,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -7.112728,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.01886,
    "excess_performance": -0.101561,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028839,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015505,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.143849,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039714,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.071127,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036043,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01886,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.065099,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5200,
      "relative_activity": 0.303384,
      "balance": 2.065099,
      "dry_up": 1.025379,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022378,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.107245,
      "from_high_reference": -0.032376,
      "from_low_reference": 0.102467
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 20.903106,
      "structural_low": 22.354713,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 33,
        "median_return": 7.2e-05,
        "positive_rate": 0.515152,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.515152,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000185,
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        "best_return": 0.047022,
        "worst_return": -0.048343,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
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        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.046478,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
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        "worst_return": -0.041631,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.042759,
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "trend": 22.796555,
        "fair_value": 20.341435,
        "relative_strength": -10.88294,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -5.491273,
        "energy": 9.964995,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 26145.0,
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        "fair_value": 20.371741,
        "relative_strength": -9.995921,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.147737,
        "energy": 18.551367,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.794473,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 22.524067,
        "volume": 7600,
        "typical_volume": 25340.0,
        "trend": 22.812215,
        "fair_value": 20.399744,
        "relative_strength": -10.717044,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.212515,
        "energy": 37.962259,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 22.793039,
        "volume": 9600,
        "typical_volume": 24910.0,
        "trend": 22.823879,
        "fair_value": 20.431296,
        "relative_strength": -8.595128,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.653057,
        "energy": 36.403381,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.684782,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 25540.0,
        "trend": 22.858097,
        "fair_value": 20.4691,
        "relative_strength": -7.736195,
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.416312,
        "energy": 16.513924,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 22.902622,
        "volume": 10000,
        "typical_volume": 24580.0,
        "trend": 22.884958,
        "fair_value": 20.504577,
        "relative_strength": -9.884717,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 4.990323,
        "energy": 5.214646,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 23.071976,
        "volume": 34800,
        "typical_volume": 25000.0,
        "trend": 22.913177,
        "fair_value": 20.541626,
        "relative_strength": -7.9434,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.741984,
        "energy": 21.837237,
        "activity_lines": [
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          22.983193,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 23.34095,
        "volume": 4300,
        "typical_volume": 24025.0,
        "trend": 22.934034,
        "fair_value": 20.579974,
        "relative_strength": -7.960415,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.471839,
        "energy": 32.448891,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 22.912584,
        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 22.930881,
        "fair_value": 20.616427,
        "relative_strength": -9.393628,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.122095,
        "energy": 18.872327,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.086587,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 23.59,
        "volume": 5800,
        "typical_volume": 21805.0,
        "trend": 22.94602,
        "fair_value": 20.657006,
        "relative_strength": -6.445825,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.792895,
        "energy": 49.750864,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.244651,
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          23.041267,
          23.035511
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 24.040001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 19700.0,
        "trend": 22.99991,
        "fair_value": 20.699003,
        "relative_strength": -5.124586,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.877807,
        "energy": 72.114524,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.536776,
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          23.106091
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 23.74,
        "volume": 10600,
        "typical_volume": 18950.0,
        "trend": 23.045118,
        "fair_value": 20.740543,
        "relative_strength": -6.176136,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.62743,
        "energy": 67.247868,
        "activity_lines": [
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          23.18915,
          23.153839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 23.690001,
        "volume": 29500,
        "typical_volume": 19040.0,
        "trend": 23.08833,
        "fair_value": 20.780175,
        "relative_strength": -5.982791,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.717596,
        "energy": 67.547405,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.708173,
          23.503289,
          23.241809,
          23.195444
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 23.959999,
        "volume": 19200,
        "typical_volume": 17935.0,
        "trend": 23.140212,
        "fair_value": 20.821292,
        "relative_strength": -4.890649,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.910887,
        "energy": 70.945202,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.83,
          23.615433,
          23.321683,
          23.251681
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 24.030001,
        "volume": 16400,
        "typical_volume": 17280.0,
        "trend": 23.200136,
        "fair_value": 20.862981,
        "relative_strength": -3.919641,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.377978,
        "energy": 56.834196,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.905334,
          23.719087,
          23.405404,
          23.309086
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 23.91,
        "volume": 5200,
        "typical_volume": 17140.0,
        "trend": 23.239791,
        "fair_value": 20.903106,
        "relative_strength": -7.112728,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.328748,
        "energy": 44.760447,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.911334,
          23.788575,
          23.474117,
          23.354884
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}