{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "18ac5c0f-3868-498e-8798-43bd23c84536",
    "symbol": "VUAA",
    "name": "Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Accumulation",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 92.822,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 82.197,
    "architecture_energy": 64.314,
    "architecture_maturity": 85.551,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.744,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.02,
        "rotation_up": 52.57,
        "upward_expansion": 82.06,
        "deceleration": 71.28,
        "rotation_down": 28.85,
        "downward_expansion": 11.06
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        121.979526
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 129.679993,
    "trend_reference": 118.641666,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.093039,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 100.840641,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285989,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.163956,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.155484,
    "excess_performance": -0.015408,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.093039,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041115,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.285989,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03364,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03164,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008511,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.155484,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.136398,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 166244,
      "relative_activity": 1.365777,
      "balance": 2.136398,
      "dry_up": 1.315089,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019504,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.118234,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004987,
      "from_low_reference": 0.245247
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    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 118.641666,
      "fair_value_reference": 100.840641,
      "structural_low": 106.779999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.009542,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003976,
        "regime_survival": 0.825,
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        "worst_return": -0.103265,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.179276,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": -0.082359,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": 0.058209,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 168064.0,
        "trend": 111.990333,
        "fair_value": 96.003846,
        "relative_strength": -1.859448,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 96.311923,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 112.637,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 159920.85,
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        "fair_value": 96.961154,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 157601.4,
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        "relative_strength": 0.077513,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 168912,
        "typical_volume": 155158.4,
        "trend": 113.956333,
        "fair_value": 97.617051,
        "relative_strength": -0.472232,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 149185.65,
        "trend": 114.456333,
        "fair_value": 97.940769,
        "relative_strength": -0.258663,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 123.970001,
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        "typical_volume": 141244.2,
        "trend": 114.869667,
        "fair_value": 98.250833,
        "relative_strength": -4.225625,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 98.581218,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 98.894423,
        "relative_strength": -2.936395,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 65.014142,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 120231.8,
        "trend": 116.251666,
        "fair_value": 99.222949,
        "relative_strength": -4.331794,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 146089,
        "typical_volume": 120902.4,
        "trend": 116.787,
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        "relative_strength": -3.128699,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 126.160004,
        "volume": 175171,
        "typical_volume": 122634.95,
        "trend": 117.259333,
        "fair_value": 99.877115,
        "relative_strength": -2.764682,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.312002,
        "energy": 67.647656,
        "activity_lines": [
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          122.860857,
          120.191677
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 126.32,
        "volume": 147620,
        "typical_volume": 120702.55,
        "trend": 117.720666,
        "fair_value": 100.188269,
        "relative_strength": -2.404421,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.037828,
        "energy": 63.720025,
        "activity_lines": [
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          120.776236
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 124.839996,
        "volume": 151262,
        "typical_volume": 121036.15,
        "trend": 118.148333,
        "fair_value": 100.496795,
        "relative_strength": -4.091927,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.313204,
        "energy": 56.639862,
        "activity_lines": [
          125.983999,
          125.888545,
          123.955999,
          121.235548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 129.679993,
        "volume": 166244,
        "typical_volume": 121721.2,
        "trend": 118.641666,
        "fair_value": 100.840641,
        "relative_strength": -3.163956,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.197,
        "energy": 64.313652,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}