{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18b3919e-1e75-4990-a455-092eebbf94fd", "symbol": "ARCTIC", "name": "Arctic Blue Beverages AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.875, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.474, "architecture_energy": 11.998, "architecture_maturity": 28.038, "architecture_confidence": 71.416, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 77.7, "rotation_up": 25.34, "upward_expansion": 19.54, "deceleration": 52.56, "rotation_down": 40.44, "downward_expansion": 37.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.14828, 0.154444, 0.158066, 0.15578 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.155, "trend_reference": 0.154927, "distance_from_trend": 0.000473, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.456378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.66037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.664177, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03125, "excess_performance": -0.092744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000473, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033641, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.66037, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027157, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.25717, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.907176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1311157, "relative_activity": 0.324358, "balance": 1.907176, "dry_up": 0.328071, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.323375, "annualized_volatility": 0.967638, "from_high_reference": -0.812121, "from_low_reference": 0.383929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.154927, "fair_value_reference": 0.456378, "structural_low": 0.112, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.141026, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.12772, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.126866, "worst_return": -0.440451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.365385, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.360772, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.175532, "worst_return": -0.527559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.738795, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.779905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.615385, "worst_return": -0.862205, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.337079, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.220472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.314286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.652174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", 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0.16488, 0.164047, 0.15926, 0.157582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.17, "volume": 2884217, "typical_volume": 4015934.55, "trend": 0.157913, "fair_value": 0.480305, "relative_strength": -44.16525, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.50863, "energy": 16.83949, "activity_lines": [ 0.165893, 0.164273, 0.16083, 0.158345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.16, "volume": 1523779, "typical_volume": 4043948.2, "trend": 0.157913, "fair_value": 0.473478, "relative_strength": -43.480101, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.875893, "energy": 17.157505, "activity_lines": [ 0.164253, 0.163225, 0.161385, 0.158479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1384, "volume": 896461, "typical_volume": 4029078.85, "trend": 0.157593, "fair_value": 0.467058, "relative_strength": -50.038319, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.063299, "energy": 6.678884, "activity_lines": [ 0.156547, 0.15876, 0.159845, 0.15722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.136, "volume": 1573265, "typical_volume": 4024019.95, "trend": 0.155727, "fair_value": 0.462019, "relative_strength": -47.305562, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.786626, "energy": 11.362298, "activity_lines": [ 0.148147, 0.154847, 0.158089, 0.155827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.155, "volume": 1311157, "typical_volume": 4042315.85, "trend": 0.154927, "fair_value": 0.456378, "relative_strength": -37.664177, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.474287, "energy": 11.997656, "activity_lines": [ 0.14828, 0.154444, 0.158066, 0.15578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }