{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18b93743-9d4c-4bbf-aaa0-fd3302a427f5", "symbol": "MSRUSB", "name": "UBS MSCI EM Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.884, "architecture_energy": 25.107, "architecture_maturity": 68.979, "architecture_confidence": 85.064, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.11, "rotation_up": 26.12, "upward_expansion": 58.71, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 31.14, "downward_expansion": 20.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.927, 26.284454, 25.999571, 25.110677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.33, "trend_reference": 23.942, "distance_from_trend": 0.099741, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.634211, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.49312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.66846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.224651, "excess_performance": 0.053759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099741, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.49312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041417, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036685, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107891, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.224651, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.656429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25646, "relative_activity": 0.435483, "balance": 0.656429, "dry_up": 1.084555, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048176, "annualized_volatility": 0.2438, "from_high_reference": -0.059475, "from_low_reference": 0.500798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.942, "fair_value_reference": 17.634211, "structural_low": 20.415001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007988, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.003026, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.139591, "worst_return": -0.046121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008979, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.053206, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.284236, "worst_return": -0.113978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002084, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.101818, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149738, "worst_return": -0.033039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003196, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009017, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116885, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": 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"close": 25.4, "volume": 121431, "typical_volume": 61797.65, "trend": 23.376933, "fair_value": 17.417731, "relative_strength": 4.31772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.63344, "energy": 44.429955, "activity_lines": [ 26.527, 26.628636, 25.650381, 24.661039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.895, "volume": 48849, "typical_volume": 61182.85, "trend": 23.584167, "fair_value": 17.491378, "relative_strength": 6.228024, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.225033, "energy": 34.516825, "activity_lines": [ 26.210333, 26.517455, 25.788738, 24.823495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.459999, "volume": 59556, "typical_volume": 60252.2, "trend": 23.7545, "fair_value": 17.560006, "relative_strength": 3.480643, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.901168, "energy": 24.034488, "activity_lines": [ 25.883, 26.321636, 25.862952, 24.944516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.33, "volume": 25646, "typical_volume": 58890.95, "trend": 23.942, "fair_value": 17.634211, "relative_strength": 3.66846, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.883565, "energy": 25.107391, "activity_lines": [ 25.927, 26.284454, 25.999571, 25.110677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }