{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18c49ddc-baa6-48fd-a0f9-22bd185abb8c", "symbol": "JPCE", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Carbon Transition Global Equity (CTB) UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.961, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.755, "architecture_energy": 67.878, "architecture_maturity": 80.731, "architecture_confidence": 61.501, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.86, "rotation_up": 53.67, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.46, "rotation_down": 29.16, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.168334, 45.051727, 44.623095, 43.956957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.950001, "trend_reference": 43.280333, "distance_from_trend": 0.061683, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.839038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247318, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.151019, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095874, "excess_performance": -0.075018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061683, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021915, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006413, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07151, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095874, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.113517, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3489, "relative_activity": 3.488128, "balance": 2.113517, "dry_up": 1.426643, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01197, "annualized_volatility": 0.133064, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.176998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.280333, "fair_value_reference": 36.839038, "structural_low": 39.040001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.010824, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.006911, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.046395, "worst_return": -0.048629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.03221, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027601, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.093314, "worst_return": -0.056226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.070817, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016884, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.120433, "worst_return": 0.05079, "sufficient": 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36.636186, "relative_strength": -6.491093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.503368, "energy": 74.217171, "activity_lines": [ 45.000333, 44.907, 44.297452, 43.690709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.48, "volume": 1179, "typical_volume": 825.85, "trend": 43.182333, "fair_value": 36.732628, "relative_strength": -7.642826, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.626378, "energy": 55.047506, "activity_lines": [ 44.843, 44.849182, 44.399, 43.778398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.950001, "volume": 3489, "typical_volume": 1000.25, "trend": 43.280333, "fair_value": 36.839038, "relative_strength": -7.151019, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.755179, "energy": 67.877699, "activity_lines": [ 45.168334, 45.051727, 44.623095, 43.956957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }