{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18c4b0cc-c684-4c3f-afaf-084cb43e26b2", "symbol": "DVDN", "name": "ETF OPPORTUNITIES TR KINGSBARN DIVIDEND OPPORTUNITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.843, "architecture_energy": 48.845, "architecture_maturity": 87.793, "architecture_confidence": 90.942, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 20.66, "upward_expansion": 7.28, "deceleration": 51.79, "rotation_down": 54.32, "downward_expansion": 78.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.59426, 15.697944, 16.073254, 16.302444 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.716, "trend_reference": 16.72932, "distance_from_trend": -0.060572, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.082617, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.217433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.704159, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.10829, "excess_performance": -0.233915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060572, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052524, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.217433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069515, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037486, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10829, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.385218, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5050, "relative_activity": 0.573952, "balance": 1.385218, "dry_up": 1.045956, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033778, "annualized_volatility": 0.198774, "from_high_reference": -0.260498, "from_low_reference": 0.030557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.72932, "fair_value_reference": 20.082617, "structural_low": 15.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02132, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028065, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.091502, "worst_return": -0.06653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.046566, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.094718, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.037699, "worst_return": -0.074258, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075365, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.226419, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.033364, "worst_return": -0.117366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.152463, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 18.997375, "volume": 29002, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-10", "close": 18.937523, "volume": 65, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-17", "close": 19.83325, "volume": 2111, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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9027.45, "trend": 16.916948, "fair_value": 20.146557, "relative_strength": -20.532388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.888074, "energy": 52.925323, "activity_lines": [ 15.748861, 15.860295, 16.237093, 16.477166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.3058, "volume": 5262, "typical_volume": 8899.0, "trend": 16.813056, "fair_value": 20.112941, "relative_strength": -21.738882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.676742, "energy": 56.856163, "activity_lines": [ 15.586179, 15.730738, 16.132782, 16.373221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.716, "volume": 5050, "typical_volume": 8798.65, "trend": 16.72932, "fair_value": 20.082617, "relative_strength": -21.704159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.842563, "energy": 48.845067, "activity_lines": [ 15.59426, 15.697944, 16.073254, 16.302444 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }