{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18cb8174-4863-4dc3-baf8-998c5436ae24", "symbol": "EFFE", "name": "HARBOR OSMOSIS EMERGING MARKETS RESOURCE EFFICIENT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.636, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.19, "architecture_energy": 19.736, "architecture_maturity": 61.613, "architecture_confidence": 79.968, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.97, "rotation_up": 24.4, "upward_expansion": 47.45, "deceleration": 84.86, "rotation_down": 35.44, "downward_expansion": 27.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.560793, 26.788069, 26.841295, 26.300149 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.6312, "trend_reference": 25.641093, "distance_from_trend": 0.077614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.805022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211628, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.6739, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126861, "excess_performance": 0.001236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051996, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211628, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006739, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044269, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126861, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.284203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78, "relative_activity": 0.073439, "balance": 0.284203, "dry_up": 0.143348, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05051, "annualized_volatility": 0.282264, "from_high_reference": -0.080493, "from_low_reference": 0.262031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.641093, "fair_value_reference": 22.805022, "structural_low": 22.2724, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013567, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076208, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 19.023833, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 19.072443, "volume": 16350, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"fair_value": 22.576227, "relative_strength": 1.899161, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.805057, "energy": 40.211752, "activity_lines": [ 27.476293, 27.511955, 26.547613, 25.917246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.305, "volume": 456, "typical_volume": 1702.2, "trend": 25.24336, "fair_value": 22.633895, "relative_strength": 1.849872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.171224, "energy": 34.915467, "activity_lines": [ 27.38312, 27.510531, 26.6961, 26.059258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.6746, "volume": 78, "typical_volume": 1684.5, "trend": 25.332353, "fair_value": 22.67053, "relative_strength": -2.677159, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.270732, "energy": 22.292138, "activity_lines": [ 26.74258, 27.181955, 26.679864, 26.08708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.1851, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 1068.8, "trend": 25.43412, "fair_value": 22.71237, "relative_strength": -0.158124, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.122019, "energy": 22.605507, "activity_lines": [ 26.423813, 26.974982, 26.712581, 26.142095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.7616, "volume": 363, "typical_volume": 1083.8, "trend": 25.508853, "fair_value": 22.748243, "relative_strength": -2.802316, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.989418, "energy": 17.594856, "activity_lines": [ 26.14144, 26.6993, 26.693811, 26.163223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.6312, "volume": 78, "typical_volume": 1062.1, "trend": 25.641093, "fair_value": 22.805022, "relative_strength": 0.6739, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.189771, "energy": 19.735692, "activity_lines": [ 26.560793, 26.788069, 26.841295, 26.300149 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }