{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18cf3ef3-2cb2-4453-b526-2bcefb42e937", "symbol": "KLTR", "name": "Kaltura Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 62.174, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.15, "architecture_energy": 46.743, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.111, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.68, "rotation_up": 65.16, "upward_expansion": 54.05, "deceleration": 28.12, "rotation_down": 23.26, "downward_expansion": 19.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.499333, 1.423455, 1.399571, 1.381054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.75, "trend_reference": 1.386667, "distance_from_trend": 0.262019, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.634705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070529, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.1765, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.258993, "excess_performance": 0.071539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.262019, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045872, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070529, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250396, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041765, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.332371, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.258993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.034755, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17396171, "relative_activity": 6.320509, "balance": 3.034755, "dry_up": 2.001481, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104585, "annualized_volatility": 0.593358, "from_high_reference": -0.146341, "from_low_reference": 0.658768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.386667, "fair_value_reference": 1.634705, "structural_low": 1.055, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.011767, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.041101, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.367188, "worst_return": -0.165829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.142357, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.171989, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.137931, "worst_return": -0.261111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.130435, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.350315, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.172414, "worst_return": -0.322222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.132701, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.573105, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.245902, "worst_return": -0.361111, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.157233, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.496183, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145349, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097297, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167702, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.95, "volume": 1076187, "typical_volume": 1803528.25, "trend": 1.946333, "fair_value": 3.555872, "relative_strength": -14.178622, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": 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"direction": -31.294934, "energy": 23.139981, "activity_lines": [ 1.322, 1.353455, 1.349762, 1.358172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.4, "volume": 2229141, "typical_volume": 2892542.5, "trend": 1.387667, "fair_value": 1.641564, "relative_strength": -13.109497, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.470576, "energy": 13.901138, "activity_lines": [ 1.347333, 1.356182, 1.355857, 1.358409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.37, "volume": 1141867, "typical_volume": 2900812.6, "trend": 1.381333, "fair_value": 1.636628, "relative_strength": -14.728066, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.242244, "energy": 7.172253, "activity_lines": [ 1.362667, 1.354545, 1.359667, 1.357269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.75, "volume": 17396171, "typical_volume": 2752337.2, "trend": 1.386667, "fair_value": 1.634705, "relative_strength": 4.1765, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.150454, "energy": 46.742853, "activity_lines": [ 1.499333, 1.423455, 1.399571, 1.381054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }