{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18d177a4-a16f-49c5-9e56-87de8720a24e", "symbol": "ALL", "name": "Aristocrat Leisure Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.358, "architecture_energy": 77.015, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.084, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.71, "rotation_up": 77.95, "upward_expansion": 90.33, "deceleration": 49.78, "rotation_down": 13.44, "downward_expansion": 14.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.427332, 61.561818, 57.152782, 54.524742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 65.559998, "trend_reference": 52.354331, "distance_from_trend": 0.252236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.942426, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21537, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.939784, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.303734, "excess_performance": 0.240028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.252236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013572, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.327856, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099398, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.307274, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.303734, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.195537, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5700026, "relative_activity": 1.004886, "balance": 2.195537, "dry_up": 1.116248, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049981, "annualized_volatility": 0.2319, "from_high_reference": -0.08888, "from_low_reference": 0.498792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.354331, "fair_value_reference": 53.942426, "structural_low": 43.741878, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.012954, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": 0.009868, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.126949, "worst_return": -0.134156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009388, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012948, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.240689, "worst_return": -0.152379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049539, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.042239, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.319249, "worst_return": -0.309617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.061634, "energy": 87.585518, "activity_lines": [ 61.129334, 58.769637, 54.738847, 52.861318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.089996, "volume": 6237570, "typical_volume": 5946189.05, "trend": 52.057417, "fair_value": 53.777015, "relative_strength": 10.66425, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.10919, "energy": 87.778388, "activity_lines": [ 62.213333, 60.160909, 55.919524, 53.653608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.559998, "volume": 5700026, "typical_volume": 5672312.25, "trend": 52.354331, "fair_value": 53.942426, "relative_strength": 9.939784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.357632, "energy": 77.015227, "activity_lines": [ 63.427332, 61.561818, 57.152782, 54.524742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }