{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "18d219df-db8b-4ac8-aced-5cd010328574",
    "symbol": "XAW",
    "name": "iShares Core MSCI All Country World ex Canada Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 93.321,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 72.967,
    "architecture_energy": 47.731,
    "architecture_maturity": 60.911,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.299,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.3,
        "rotation_up": 43.79,
        "upward_expansion": 74.19,
        "deceleration": 91.39,
        "rotation_down": 29.22,
        "downward_expansion": 12.19
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        58.269333,
        58.253449,
        57.411636,
        56.18807
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 59.349998,
    "trend_reference": 54.812164,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.082789,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 44.741529,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326508,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.656671,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.121716,
    "excess_performance": 0.001295,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.082789,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039949,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.326508,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016767,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006567,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005115,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.121716,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.374002,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 349400,
      "relative_activity": 1.122949,
      "balance": 1.374002,
      "dry_up": 1.206351,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.02486,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.148678,
      "from_high_reference": -0.009678,
      "from_low_reference": 0.240862
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 54.812164,
      "fair_value_reference": 44.741529,
      "structural_low": 49.25,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.003703,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002812,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.054422,
        "worst_return": -0.055539,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.03556,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018898,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.06023,
        "worst_return": -0.088107,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.07752,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017804,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.194171,
        "worst_return": -0.007063,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.118261,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022261,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.248723,
        "worst_return": -0.118397,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.110493,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.016422,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.002065,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005497,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.093049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022039,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.077937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053706,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0112,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.035059,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.074419,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.011734,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.066256,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 98367.1,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 398405.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 43.300928,
        "relative_strength": -0.891498,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 53.062449,
        "fair_value": 43.458334,
        "relative_strength": -0.462305,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 43.788473,
        "relative_strength": 0.023064,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.814363,
        "energy": 75.60491,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 48400,
        "typical_volume": 326955.0,
        "trend": 53.770247,
        "fair_value": 43.958132,
        "relative_strength": 1.736037,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 327145.0,
        "trend": 54.019572,
        "fair_value": 44.120775,
        "relative_strength": 1.177649,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 82.961771,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 57.32,
        "volume": 446900,
        "typical_volume": 333815.0,
        "trend": 54.208879,
        "fair_value": 44.27229,
        "relative_strength": -1.357804,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.678866,
        "energy": 58.561938,
        "activity_lines": [
          58.295709,
          57.989785,
          56.580183,
          55.450019
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 57.48,
        "volume": 326800,
        "typical_volume": 328640.0,
        "trend": 54.39583,
        "fair_value": 44.422033,
        "relative_strength": -1.246443,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.62714,
        "energy": 51.945878,
        "activity_lines": [
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          57.973813,
          56.819636,
          55.661059
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 57.82,
        "volume": 378300,
        "typical_volume": 323730.0,
        "trend": 54.605497,
        "fair_value": 44.576877,
        "relative_strength": -0.153013,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.493058,
        "energy": 39.025464,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.869333,
          57.985981,
          57.060041,
          55.881974
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 59.349998,
        "volume": 349400,
        "typical_volume": 311145.0,
        "trend": 54.812164,
        "fair_value": 44.741529,
        "relative_strength": -0.656671,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.966505,
        "energy": 47.731224,
        "activity_lines": [
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          56.18807
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}