{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18d2a6a3-bbe7-479e-b07a-34d0b9dc1527", "symbol": "002945", "name": "ChinaLin Securities Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.857, "architecture_energy": 25.776, "architecture_maturity": 76.314, "architecture_confidence": 84.637, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.09, "rotation_up": 26.83, "upward_expansion": 15.47, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 33.53, "downward_expansion": 65.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.954132, 13.716514, 14.07521, 14.668495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.66, "trend_reference": 15.608353, "distance_from_trend": -0.060759, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.119717, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.973822, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.191841, "excess_performance": -0.199241, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060759, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.831483, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106302873, "relative_activity": 1.926942, "balance": 0.831483, "dry_up": 1.56405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071256, "annualized_volatility": 0.325004, "from_high_reference": -0.309142, "from_low_reference": 0.165868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.608353, "fair_value_reference": 14.119717, "structural_low": 12.574322, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.014236, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.014636, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.402923, "worst_return": -0.103644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.072289, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.072935, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.609833, "worst_return": -0.157356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.134031, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.159715, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.441909, "worst_return": -0.361341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 66.981765, "activity_lines": [ 13.206475, 13.531274, 14.255695, 14.973918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.89, "volume": 64834576, "typical_volume": 51946929.65, "trend": 15.622686, "fair_value": 14.101615, "relative_strength": -18.661142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.246248, "energy": 59.754748, "activity_lines": [ 13.057702, 13.353263, 14.066216, 14.794519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.64, "volume": 131243691, "typical_volume": 53582483.5, "trend": 15.630686, "fair_value": 14.110091, "relative_strength": -5.800188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.280921, "energy": 39.666495, "activity_lines": [ 13.542236, 13.532525, 14.065832, 14.73112 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.66, "volume": 106302873, "typical_volume": 55166606.15, "trend": 15.608353, "fair_value": 14.119717, "relative_strength": -9.973822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.856726, "energy": 25.775676, "activity_lines": [ 13.954132, 13.716514, 14.07521, 14.668495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }