{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18d9f0cd-200a-4338-974c-effb97dc7901", "symbol": "HIPS", "name": "GRANITESHARES ETF TRUST HIPS US HIGH INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.299, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.473, "architecture_energy": 22.858, "architecture_maturity": 23.48, "architecture_confidence": 43.941, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.74, "rotation_up": 56.46, "upward_expansion": 38.82, "deceleration": 34.38, "rotation_down": 18.96, "downward_expansion": 16.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.555548, 11.485712, 11.495364, 11.490683 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.7226, "trend_reference": 11.501085, "distance_from_trend": 0.01926, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.691932, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.875111, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.023587, "excess_performance": -0.102038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01926, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007646, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096397, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000634, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.564971, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237359, "relative_activity": 0.851314, "balance": 1.564971, "dry_up": 1.179258, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017833, "annualized_volatility": 0.100658, "from_high_reference": -0.017066, "from_low_reference": 0.10422 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.501085, "fair_value_reference": 10.691932, "structural_low": 11.129945, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.004376, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.005885, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.056234, "worst_return": -0.090563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010023, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05647, "worst_return": -0.046543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007428, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.074343, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.103552, "worst_return": -0.138857, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 4.456496, "activity_lines": [ 11.446043, 11.430265, 11.476643, 11.480644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.426951, "volume": 190498, "typical_volume": 253639.5, "trend": 11.484947, "fair_value": 10.659351, "relative_strength": -6.58508, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.727364, "energy": 15.35416, "activity_lines": [ 11.456864, 11.427013, 11.472585, 11.477368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.46, "volume": 631033, "typical_volume": 274341.2, "trend": 11.491267, "fair_value": 10.674867, "relative_strength": -7.046932, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.429403, "energy": 16.798686, "activity_lines": [ 11.467438, 11.432243, 11.471921, 11.475758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.7226, "volume": 237359, "typical_volume": 278814.95, "trend": 11.501085, "fair_value": 10.691932, "relative_strength": -7.875111, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.473377, "energy": 22.857815, "activity_lines": [ 11.555548, 11.485712, 11.495364, 11.490683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }