{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18dd6ed6-c386-41ff-8b49-e21e9b64807a", "symbol": "002426", "name": "Suzhou Victory Precision Manufacture Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.815, "architecture_energy": 82.926, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.274, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.8, "rotation_up": 8.17, "upward_expansion": 19.77, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 79.8, "downward_expansion": 95.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.652, 3.009091, 3.311238, 3.469462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.75, "trend_reference": 3.67, "distance_from_trend": -0.250681, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.788462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.844491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.342105, "excess_performance": -0.349505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.250681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022202, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013793, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.512613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.629396, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 445977761, "relative_activity": 0.737828, "balance": 0.629396, "dry_up": 0.916053, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165594, "annualized_volatility": 0.630478, "from_high_reference": -0.428274, "from_low_reference": 0.261468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.67, "fair_value_reference": 2.788462, "structural_low": 2.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.008696, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.000195, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.240741, "worst_return": -0.188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.103226, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.039226, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.47486, "worst_return": -0.197309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.196535, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.099622, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.905882, "worst_return": -0.319392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.251134, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.111256, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.692737, "worst_return": -0.284, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195513, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038168, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240741, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107463, 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"direction": -54.463287, "energy": 22.615357, "activity_lines": [ 3.672667, 3.694909, 3.720857, 3.774839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.59, "volume": 685982399, "typical_volume": 758385348.65, "trend": 3.779667, "fair_value": 2.784103, "relative_strength": -28.568785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.167972, "energy": 69.198882, "activity_lines": [ 3.294667, 3.488364, 3.608286, 3.696215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.39, "volume": 541744802, "typical_volume": 721468709.85, "trend": 3.749, "fair_value": 2.783974, "relative_strength": -33.89556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.018385, "energy": 84.09568, "activity_lines": [ 2.911333, 3.271636, 3.483714, 3.606559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.58, "volume": 541115008, "typical_volume": 687767619.8, "trend": 3.706, "fair_value": 2.785769, "relative_strength": -27.149034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.953146, "energy": 84.30652, "activity_lines": [ 2.707333, 3.115091, 3.385857, 3.53114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.75, "volume": 445977761, "typical_volume": 604446496.65, "trend": 3.67, "fair_value": 2.788462, "relative_strength": -25.844491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.814807, "energy": 82.925682, "activity_lines": [ 2.652, 3.009091, 3.311238, 3.469462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }