{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18df24a0-59b4-40f9-b021-64b99d787523", "symbol": "AKE", "name": "Arkema S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.518, "architecture_energy": 32.033, "architecture_maturity": 22.699, "architecture_confidence": 65.09, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.23, "rotation_up": 54.0, "upward_expansion": 64.84, "deceleration": 59.06, "rotation_down": 17.21, "downward_expansion": 12.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.416667, 57.538182, 57.853802, 57.19387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 61.450001, "trend_reference": 55.947641, "distance_from_trend": 0.098348, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.68544, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078509, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.479035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12457, "excess_performance": 0.071259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098348, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05333, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs 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"A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.01256, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.015172, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.120346, "worst_return": -0.1344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019722, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00304, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.124917, "worst_return": -0.163618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.138116, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.090178, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.218633, "worst_return": -0.290682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 0.396759, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.818962, "energy": 16.899034, "activity_lines": [ 55.649999, 56.525454, 57.226138, 56.58029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.900002, "volume": 1131736, "typical_volume": 985030.0, "trend": 55.579425, "fair_value": 66.826148, "relative_strength": 4.360389, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.583266, "energy": 13.40186, "activity_lines": [ 56.703334, 56.802727, 57.437089, 56.815123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.450001, "volume": 884423, "typical_volume": 874600.05, "trend": 55.947641, "fair_value": 66.68544, "relative_strength": 6.479035, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.517663, "energy": 32.033015, "activity_lines": [ 58.416667, 57.538182, 57.853802, 57.19387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }