{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18e11a01-f8cf-4866-b605-f04f5bd56287", "symbol": "XIHD", "name": "Premier ETF High Dividen 20", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.648, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.98, "architecture_energy": 20.096, "architecture_maturity": 81.049, "architecture_confidence": 52.713, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.21, "rotation_up": 33.35, "upward_expansion": 17.26, "deceleration": 46.8, "rotation_down": 18.71, "downward_expansion": 51.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 610.533333, 600.509091, 602.361905, 614.666667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 610.0, "trend_reference": 634.233333, "distance_from_trend": -0.038209, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 647.205128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.010206, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.102941, "excess_performance": 0.089315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038209, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.110102, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007843, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.048752, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81400, "relative_activity": 0.142598, "balance": 0.048752, "dry_up": 0.167605, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056116, "annualized_volatility": 0.230258, "from_high_reference": -0.152778, "from_low_reference": 0.115174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 634.233333, "fair_value_reference": 647.205128, "structural_low": 547.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016948, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003842, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.103147, "worst_return": -0.066986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.128918, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.024396, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.061321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022013, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212919, "worst_return": -0.00319, 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87700, "typical_volume": 576005.0, "trend": 638.4, "fair_value": 647.903846, "relative_strength": 15.612422, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.284332, "energy": 20.845426, "activity_lines": [ 600.533333, 592.254545, 602.761905, 617.901075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 615.0, "volume": 77300, "typical_volume": 575370.0, "trend": 636.733333, "fair_value": 647.576923, "relative_strength": 15.384696, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.365512, "energy": 21.362798, "activity_lines": [ 607.933333, 596.963636, 602.719048, 616.391398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 610.0, "volume": 81400, "typical_volume": 570835.0, "trend": 634.233333, "fair_value": 647.205128, "relative_strength": 11.010206, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.980323, "energy": 20.095751, "activity_lines": [ 610.533333, 600.509091, 602.361905, 614.666667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }