{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18e13244-fdb8-4a52-a1ad-eaec590a2286", "symbol": "TALO", "name": "Talos Energy", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.435, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.843, "architecture_energy": 21.649, "architecture_maturity": 30.046, "architecture_confidence": 55.46, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.42, "rotation_up": 52.97, "upward_expansion": 66.2, "deceleration": 62.85, "rotation_down": 17.52, "downward_expansion": 14.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.716667, 14.403636, 14.583476, 14.535742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.38, "trend_reference": 14.157667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015704, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.869615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.182451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131393, "excess_performance": 0.005768, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015704, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054064, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031825, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192362, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131393, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.752036, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12461881, "relative_activity": 1.230226, "balance": 0.752036, "dry_up": 1.038278, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099042, "annualized_volatility": 0.454181, "from_high_reference": -0.156598, "from_low_reference": 0.845956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.157667, "fair_value_reference": 11.869615, "structural_low": 10.85, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.038344, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.049696, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.55546, "worst_return": -0.323278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.06382, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.166853, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.706793, "worst_return": -0.403895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.062506, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.108993, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.166489, "worst_return": -0.285333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.228486, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014658, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.557515, "worst_return": -0.512212, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.003506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011905, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069003, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058104, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008787, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.305369, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093396, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067332, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044299, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.04, "volume": 6748279, "typical_volume": 10624210.7, "trend": 15.030667, "fair_value": 14.114423, "relative_strength": -8.478375, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", 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11.846897, "energy": 18.465553, "activity_lines": [ 13.985333, 14.187636, 14.566762, 14.357204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.93, "volume": 9416121, "typical_volume": 10384292.6, "trend": 13.908667, "fair_value": 11.893141, "relative_strength": 13.756361, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.627591, "energy": 11.956502, "activity_lines": [ 14.355333, 14.254909, 14.589286, 14.431763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.18, "volume": 11036251, "typical_volume": 10346244.35, "trend": 14.039667, "fair_value": 11.885962, "relative_strength": 13.496714, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.353483, "energy": 21.410385, "activity_lines": [ 14.731333, 14.394182, 14.627714, 14.513785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.38, "volume": 12461881, "typical_volume": 10129748.1, "trend": 14.157667, "fair_value": 11.869615, "relative_strength": 3.182451, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.843037, "energy": 21.648974, "activity_lines": [ 14.716667, 14.403636, 14.583476, 14.535742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }