{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18e2ba3a-29ad-4fc2-a65b-158c924aacd9", "symbol": "BICO", "name": "BICO Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.047, "architecture_energy": 71.235, "architecture_maturity": 25.011, "architecture_confidence": 95.999, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 14.32, "upward_expansion": 16.66, "deceleration": 38.1, "rotation_down": 63.77, "downward_expansion": 87.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.432, 14.884, 16.219048, 16.754194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.38, "trend_reference": 17.332333, "distance_from_trend": -0.112641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.558718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.541699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.645895, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.115584, "excess_performance": -0.177078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073748, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.541699, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069561, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115584, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1785591, "relative_activity": 1.362875, "balance": 0.487021, "dry_up": 1.043912, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098329, "annualized_volatility": 0.43617, "from_high_reference": -0.573961, "from_low_reference": 0.188563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.332333, "fair_value_reference": 33.558718, "structural_low": 12.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.02724, "positive_rate": 0.432432, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.01136, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.850018, "worst_return": -0.618243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.058438, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.157167, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 1.255855, "worst_return": -0.733645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.288967, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.29074, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.07931, "worst_return": -0.536669, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 1238742.05, "trend": 18.004667, "fair_value": 34.3075, "relative_strength": -40.188623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.250449, "energy": 70.734829, "activity_lines": [ 15.588, 16.446545, 17.421571, 17.652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.92, "volume": 1454228, "typical_volume": 1269587.1, "trend": 17.852667, "fair_value": 34.084744, "relative_strength": -38.386479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.987633, "energy": 77.676514, "activity_lines": [ 14.922667, 15.859636, 17.058905, 17.388473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.38, "volume": 1056713, "typical_volume": 1251591.95, "trend": 17.665333, "fair_value": 33.9, "relative_strength": -39.95588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.383568, "energy": 82.370572, "activity_lines": [ 14.238667, 15.266909, 16.665476, 17.099914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4, "volume": 1174252, "typical_volume": 1265858.45, "trend": 17.473333, "fair_value": 33.716282, "relative_strength": -34.553571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.106758, "energy": 80.159467, "activity_lines": [ 14.116, 14.946182, 16.38919, 16.889247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.38, "volume": 1785591, "typical_volume": 1310164.65, "trend": 17.332333, "fair_value": 33.558718, "relative_strength": -29.645895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.04651, "energy": 71.235122, "activity_lines": [ 14.432, 14.884, 16.219048, 16.754194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }