{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18e62681-0bc7-4aae-8749-31e8fad6802d", "symbol": "CINA", "name": "Amundi MSCI China ESG Selection Extra UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.292, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.626, "architecture_energy": 37.968, "architecture_maturity": 89.555, "architecture_confidence": 69.264, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.01, "rotation_up": 66.84, "upward_expansion": 37.1, "deceleration": 43.37, "rotation_down": 16.73, "downward_expansion": 23.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.181999, 101.612727, 101.369762, 102.00015 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 106.519997, "trend_reference": 103.731667, "distance_from_trend": 0.02688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 92.495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15163, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.312807, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033569, "excess_performance": -0.204461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02688, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15163, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001831, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033569, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.377176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8115, "relative_activity": 0.436175, "balance": 0.377176, "dry_up": 0.487385, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031327, "annualized_volatility": 0.190737, "from_high_reference": -0.123797, "from_low_reference": 0.152939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.731667, "fair_value_reference": 92.495, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.727631, "energy": 84.968362, "activity_lines": [ 97.886667, 99.728182, 101.337381, 103.116409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 95.199997, "volume": 6063, "typical_volume": 28187.0, "trend": 105.005, "fair_value": 91.954295, "relative_strength": -24.708612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.366067, "energy": 85.472004, "activity_lines": [ 96.634666, 98.65309, 100.635761, 102.446258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 100.660004, "volume": 13047, "typical_volume": 23330.1, "trend": 104.707667, "fair_value": 92.058718, "relative_strength": -19.747848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.029491, "energy": 67.727377, "activity_lines": [ 97.565334, 98.735273, 100.512952, 102.165936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 100.610001, "volume": 10415, "typical_volume": 21839.55, "trend": 104.396334, "fair_value": 92.172179, "relative_strength": -18.244772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.579531, "energy": 45.920063, "activity_lines": [ 98.506668, 98.848909, 100.422905, 101.90157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.75, "volume": 5323, "typical_volume": 20055.7, "trend": 104.158, "fair_value": 92.243205, "relative_strength": -16.800576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.173375, "energy": 22.038731, "activity_lines": [ 99.846001, 99.247273, 100.461476, 101.730839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.75, "volume": 12418, "typical_volume": 19654.95, "trend": 103.937667, "fair_value": 92.352821, "relative_strength": -13.787303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.268371, "energy": 19.109604, "activity_lines": [ 102.273334, 100.404546, 100.878667, 101.833549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.519997, "volume": 8115, "typical_volume": 18604.9, "trend": 103.731667, "fair_value": 92.495, "relative_strength": -15.312807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.626109, "energy": 37.968429, "activity_lines": [ 104.181999, 101.612727, 101.369762, 102.00015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }