{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "18e935c6-5b8f-4291-8250-a8233a82c344",
    "symbol": "LCWLD",
    "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY - Low Carbon 300 World PAB",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 76.241,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 42.882,
    "architecture_energy": 37.416,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.608,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.893,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.41,
        "rotation_up": 26.89,
        "upward_expansion": 63.33,
        "deceleration": 91.17,
        "rotation_down": 27.99,
        "downward_expansion": 27.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        19.7546,
        19.944182,
        19.567895,
        19.104813
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 19.9,
    "trend_reference": 18.596466,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.070096,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 16.592103,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199366,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.860187,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.126713,
    "excess_performance": -0.044179,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070096,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043956,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.199366,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037977,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.058602,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007061,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126713,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.20863,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 91,
      "relative_activity": 0.052876,
      "balance": 0.20863,
      "dry_up": 1.819872,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018044,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.131133,
      "from_high_reference": -0.035853,
      "from_low_reference": 0.184524
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 18.596466,
      "fair_value_reference": 16.592103,
      "structural_low": 16.799999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.019723,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006169,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.049023,
        "worst_return": 0.00795,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.063631,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.033401,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.110236,
        "worst_return": 0.019761,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.109042,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.061375,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.257111,
        "worst_return": 0.094151,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.411377,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.196376,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.411377,
        "worst_return": 0.411377,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012058,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.089625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.102364,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010335,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.013551,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.014178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000681,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.015265,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.030479,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023221,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004562,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003123,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009683,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 736.1,
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 17.618,
        "volume": 480,
        "typical_volume": 1485.2,
        "trend": 17.6566,
        "fair_value": 15.947231,
        "relative_strength": -9.632865,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.982054,
        "energy": 22.221648,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.574533,
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          17.599476,
          17.634245
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 18.57,
        "volume": 4563,
        "typical_volume": 1658.45,
        "trend": 17.691,
        "fair_value": 15.989474,
        "relative_strength": -6.566329,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 54.686357,
        "energy": 43.060484,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 1945.75,
        "trend": 17.717067,
        "fair_value": 16.030936,
        "relative_strength": -6.347292,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.957353,
        "energy": 81.498525,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.153866,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 19.209999,
        "volume": 653,
        "typical_volume": 1929.95,
        "trend": 17.7664,
        "fair_value": 16.074769,
        "relative_strength": -3.398023,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.441313,
        "energy": 95.919352,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.572133,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 1734,
        "typical_volume": 1873.95,
        "trend": 17.813467,
        "fair_value": 16.118974,
        "relative_strength": -3.952438,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.907911,
        "energy": 95.485984,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 19.546,
        "volume": 773,
        "typical_volume": 1770.55,
        "trend": 17.8864,
        "fair_value": 16.164962,
        "relative_strength": -2.161098,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.948855,
        "energy": 95.531277,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.201733,
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          18.051114
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 20.01,
        "volume": 40,
        "typical_volume": 1611.5,
        "trend": 17.967467,
        "fair_value": 16.213923,
        "relative_strength": -2.748984,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.255375,
        "energy": 97.491895,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.531333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 275,
        "typical_volume": 1488.2,
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        "fair_value": 16.264705,
        "relative_strength": -3.2526,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 94.350159,
        "energy": 97.932134,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 20.465,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1461.6,
        "trend": 18.1653,
        "fair_value": 16.315968,
        "relative_strength": 0.221673,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.150735,
        "energy": 96.150269,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.151666,
          19.622763,
          18.821114,
          18.49892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 20.559999,
        "volume": 336,
        "typical_volume": 1360.6,
        "trend": 18.258433,
        "fair_value": 16.366288,
        "relative_strength": -2.097799,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.76984,
        "energy": 94.272017,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.359733,
          19.885909,
          19.032395,
          18.653417
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 20.045,
        "volume": 420,
        "typical_volume": 1229.1,
        "trend": 18.34,
        "fair_value": 16.413615,
        "relative_strength": -3.970648,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.590334,
        "energy": 88.3809,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.31,
          20.000472,
          19.181352,
          18.768679
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 19.916,
        "volume": 657,
        "typical_volume": 1251.95,
        "trend": 18.418666,
        "fair_value": 16.45932,
        "relative_strength": -3.063529,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.85873,
        "energy": 67.438901,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.184,
          20.047454,
          19.307743,
          18.870357
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 19.785999,
        "volume": 11249,
        "typical_volume": 1745.4,
        "trend": 18.486533,
        "fair_value": 16.503667,
        "relative_strength": -3.367278,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.632379,
        "energy": 59.327065,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.020933,
          20.046327,
          19.412428,
          18.958572
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 19.396,
        "volume": 531,
        "typical_volume": 1759.55,
        "trend": 18.542733,
        "fair_value": 16.546269,
        "relative_strength": -5.71146,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.827211,
        "energy": 41.426567,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.768133,
          19.951127,
          19.470628,
          19.017247
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 19.9,
        "volume": 91,
        "typical_volume": 1721.0,
        "trend": 18.596466,
        "fair_value": 16.592103,
        "relative_strength": -5.860187,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.88213,
        "energy": 37.415999,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.7546,
          19.944182,
          19.567895,
          19.104813
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}