{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18f327ed-538a-48e0-8451-5acd649c8ec0", "symbol": "MOKSH", "name": "Moksh Ornaments Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.384, "architecture_energy": 69.787, "architecture_maturity": 52.245, "architecture_confidence": 86.275, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.34, "rotation_up": 8.84, "upward_expansion": 15.5, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 71.96, "downward_expansion": 88.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.811333, 11.213091, 11.575238, 11.640581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.05, "trend_reference": 11.985667, "distance_from_trend": -0.078065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.306276, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.278074, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.098306, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.172285, "excess_performance": -0.128576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079159, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.278074, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164858, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172285, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.100359, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 316476, "relative_activity": 0.558015, "balance": 0.100359, "dry_up": 1.044085, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070101, "annualized_volatility": 0.503747, "from_high_reference": -0.336336, "from_low_reference": 0.362515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.985667, "fair_value_reference": 15.306276, "structural_low": 8.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.019497, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.022758, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.506077, "worst_return": -0.347253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01582, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.067975, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.342838, "worst_return": -0.258993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.078471, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.112569, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.272546, "worst_return": -0.27972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092446, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", 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11.887571, 12.092645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.72, "volume": 306741, "typical_volume": 610237.8, "trend": 12.541667, "fair_value": 15.357686, "relative_strength": -9.139772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.25316, "energy": 17.584514, "activity_lines": [ 11.904, 11.948182, 11.883667, 12.034581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.4, "volume": 1116701, "typical_volume": 650707.4, "trend": 12.411, "fair_value": 15.35961, "relative_strength": -11.716698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.212511, "energy": 27.890623, "activity_lines": [ 11.721333, 11.821273, 11.854571, 11.960925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.72, "volume": 379450, "typical_volume": 639922.75, "trend": 12.266333, "fair_value": 15.339866, "relative_strength": -14.676884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.095133, "energy": 53.873447, "activity_lines": [ 11.353333, 11.609636, 11.765857, 11.851828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.06, "volume": 555967, "typical_volume": 588890.0, "trend": 12.118, "fair_value": 15.32134, "relative_strength": -21.523859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.424808, "energy": 76.654603, "activity_lines": [ 10.848, 11.305091, 11.620429, 11.709484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.05, "volume": 316476, "typical_volume": 567145.9, "trend": 11.985667, "fair_value": 15.306276, "relative_strength": -14.098306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.383955, "energy": 69.786592, "activity_lines": [ 10.811333, 11.213091, 11.575238, 11.640581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }