{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "18f825cc-eedd-4000-a24a-d958c8339554",
    "symbol": "BWE",
    "name": "BW Energy Limited",
    "exchange": "OSL",
    "country": "NO",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 68.189,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -6.811,
    "architecture_energy": 6.444,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.027,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.439,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 64.76,
        "rotation_up": 31.48,
        "upward_expansion": 25.34,
        "deceleration": 47.79,
        "rotation_down": 28.73,
        "downward_expansion": 27.67
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        52.433334,
        52.10091,
        53.610715,
        53.839033
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 53.900002,
    "trend_reference": 52.903334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.018839,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 34.56891,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.559205,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 2.036651,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.220838,
    "excess_performance": 0.095844,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.018839,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085679,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.559205,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0675,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020367,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062124,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.220838,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.794081,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 282451,
      "relative_activity": 0.620417,
      "balance": 0.794081,
      "dry_up": 0.722876,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.087627,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.362515,
      "from_high_reference": -0.13344,
      "from_low_reference": 0.623494
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 52.903334,
      "fair_value_reference": 34.56891,
      "structural_low": 43.5,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": -0.005653,
        "positive_rate": 0.4375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020978,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.16,
        "worst_return": -0.1352,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.034735,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.014762,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.190813,
        "worst_return": -0.211786,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.076569,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.034105,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.232176,
        "worst_return": -0.127072,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.05046,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.14622,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.0609,
        "worst_return": -0.066543,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030575,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.189091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.061654,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.019074,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.105333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.186046,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.179894,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.29028,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.181614,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "return": 0.053763,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.094903,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.046422,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 37.565657,
        "activity_lines": [
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          52.570238,
          49.612903
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 57.700001,
        "volume": 307456,
        "typical_volume": 583313.05,
        "trend": 46.731667,
        "fair_value": 32.236859,
        "relative_strength": 16.134814,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.298046,
        "energy": 36.193007,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.066667,
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          53.347619,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 52.700001,
        "volume": 565754,
        "typical_volume": 596042.0,
        "trend": 46.85,
        "fair_value": 32.396795,
        "relative_strength": 8.249081,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.642156,
        "energy": 24.217811,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 55.799999,
        "volume": 409649,
        "typical_volume": 598479.5,
        "trend": 47.468333,
        "fair_value": 32.56859,
        "relative_strength": 11.35867,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.169184,
        "energy": 25.571673,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.1,
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          54.001667,
          51.3
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 58.799999,
        "volume": 923157,
        "typical_volume": 622414.05,
        "trend": 48.123333,
        "fair_value": 32.777885,
        "relative_strength": 15.148277,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.128813,
        "energy": 35.148475,
        "activity_lines": [
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          52.031075
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 56.900002,
        "volume": 1608134,
        "typical_volume": 678917.05,
        "trend": 48.728333,
        "fair_value": 32.965064,
        "relative_strength": 13.114259,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.464309,
        "energy": 30.501864,
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          52.597312
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 60.099998,
        "volume": 106215,
        "typical_volume": 660432.25,
        "trend": 49.48,
        "fair_value": 33.170833,
        "relative_strength": 18.434841,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.93698,
        "energy": 40.975094,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 104815,
        "typical_volume": 648814.5,
        "trend": 50.105,
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.711804,
        "energy": 42.520965,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 51.5,
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        "trend": 50.59,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 51.700001,
        "volume": 51365,
        "typical_volume": 631146.35,
        "trend": 51.08,
        "fair_value": 33.698077,
        "relative_strength": 6.089424,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.452219,
        "energy": 7.167471,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.413334,
          55.530909,
          55.700953,
          54.055161
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 49.450001,
        "volume": 35893,
        "typical_volume": 610769.2,
        "trend": 51.453333,
        "fair_value": 33.841346,
        "relative_strength": -1.075704,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -5.858821,
        "energy": 18.295869,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.336667,
          54.363637,
          55.177619,
          53.95
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 49.299999,
        "volume": 219809,
        "typical_volume": 602697.35,
        "trend": 51.81,
        "fair_value": 33.986218,
        "relative_strength": -0.951254,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.869675,
        "energy": 32.532084,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.706667,
          53.275455,
          54.623095,
          53.811075
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 50.900002,
        "volume": 194818,
        "typical_volume": 574920.35,
        "trend": 52.181667,
        "fair_value": 34.132692,
        "relative_strength": 0.643077,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.211086,
        "energy": 44.338548,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.330001,
          52.63091,
          54.22,
          53.752366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 52.900002,
        "volume": 278053,
        "typical_volume": 532616.9,
        "trend": 52.481667,
        "fair_value": 34.282692,
        "relative_strength": 1.639272,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.489801,
        "energy": 34.958468,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.106668,
          52.382728,
          54.011667,
          53.79871
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 51.799999,
        "volume": 561063,
        "typical_volume": 493102.45,
        "trend": 52.593333,
        "fair_value": 34.419551,
        "relative_strength": -1.264031,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.394092,
        "energy": 19.795337,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.423334,
          51.987273,
          53.706191,
          53.754731
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 53.900002,
        "volume": 282451,
        "typical_volume": 455259.85,
        "trend": 52.903334,
        "fair_value": 34.56891,
        "relative_strength": 2.036651,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -6.810514,
        "energy": 6.444072,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.433334,
          52.10091,
          53.610715,
          53.839033
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}