{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19053e69-9c14-4e67-86b6-4f279cf02cdb", "symbol": "TRLA", "name": "INVESCO MARKETS II PLC IVZ US T", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.914, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.877, "architecture_energy": 75.182, "architecture_maturity": 5.984, "architecture_confidence": 74.947, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.83, "rotation_up": 8.49, "upward_expansion": 16.87, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 77.21, "downward_expansion": 92.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.693267, 4.73915, 4.76132, 4.779167 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.6845, "trend_reference": 4.8036, "distance_from_trend": -0.024794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.741029, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.34549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028364, "excess_performance": -0.079599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004607, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050665, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.219257, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014167, "annualized_volatility": 0.091318, "from_high_reference": -0.062162, "from_low_reference": 0.010353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.8036, "fair_value_reference": 4.741029, "structural_low": 4.6365, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004805, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.022105, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.00723, "worst_return": -0.035319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.011364, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011364, "worst_return": -0.011364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003819, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005565, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011232, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010353, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-23", "close": 4.643, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-01", "close": 4.676, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"close": 4.70975, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16777.45, "trend": 4.813617, "fair_value": 4.742297, "relative_strength": -9.134152, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.246263, "energy": 45.41466, "activity_lines": [ 4.760967, 4.783027, 4.78477, 4.798582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.6365, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16777.45, "trend": 4.808317, "fair_value": 4.741471, "relative_strength": -11.302157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.874269, "energy": 77.111066, "activity_lines": [ 4.71075, 4.756032, 4.770386, 4.787155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.6845, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16765.95, "trend": 4.8036, "fair_value": 4.741029, "relative_strength": -10.34549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.876599, "energy": 75.182449, "activity_lines": [ 4.693267, 4.73915, 4.76132, 4.779167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }