{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1909a987-19b9-4660-aa0f-b48f9958111e", "symbol": "CIGI", "name": "Colliers International Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.912, "architecture_energy": 10.919, "architecture_maturity": 30.109, "architecture_confidence": 65.732, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.99, "rotation_up": 29.88, "upward_expansion": 25.36, "deceleration": 49.71, "rotation_down": 18.3, "downward_expansion": 45.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 139.743334, 138.384993, 137.632102, 140.873051 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 141.820007, "trend_reference": 149.249191, "distance_from_trend": -0.049777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 172.93774, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179936, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.754896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.256514, "excess_performance": -0.376935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049777, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128093, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037992, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072108, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256514, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.943196, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 520900, "relative_activity": 1.316684, "balance": 0.943196, "dry_up": 1.329323, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061438, "annualized_volatility": 0.421172, "from_high_reference": -0.406662, "from_low_reference": 0.135675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.249191, "fair_value_reference": 172.93774, "structural_low": 124.877229, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049089, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.045567, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121271, "worst_return": -0.076545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.041225, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281256, "worst_return": -0.180966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.120783, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.029764, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.432524, "worst_return": -0.122449, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.823194, "energy": 32.373145, "activity_lines": [ 136.205934, 134.647036, 137.776354, 144.621351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 142.529999, "volume": 408600, "typical_volume": 389650.0, "trend": 155.605333, "fair_value": 172.985684, "relative_strength": -29.809276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.522317, "energy": 19.849287, "activity_lines": [ 138.650902, 136.278954, 137.858946, 143.650774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.529999, "volume": 542200, "typical_volume": 389635.0, "trend": 153.345858, "fair_value": 173.026135, "relative_strength": -31.742402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.663152, "energy": 20.871578, "activity_lines": [ 139.001803, 136.866884, 137.557061, 142.484624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 137.839996, "volume": 631900, "typical_volume": 394400.0, "trend": 151.293524, "fair_value": 172.969213, "relative_strength": -30.42455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.152318, "energy": 16.222253, "activity_lines": [ 138.932664, 137.311804, 137.380557, 141.484246 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 141.820007, "volume": 520900, "typical_volume": 395615.0, "trend": 149.249191, "fair_value": 172.93774, "relative_strength": -29.754896, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.911776, "energy": 10.918917, "activity_lines": [ 139.743334, 138.384993, 137.632102, 140.873051 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }